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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Casaubon who wrote (40465)	10/17/2002 12:08:38 PM
From: zonder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52237

Sorry, didn't mean to sound that arrogant :) I recently found this thread. I don't mind posting, but I am not sure you guys will be interested with my long term reasoning. Examples: These days, I am looking at financials to short, focusing on banks and consumer finance. I have concerns of asset quality and a possibility of interest rate increases in the long run with the former, and problems with high personal leverage, high unemployment rate, and high mortgage burdens with the latter. Another idea is to short the companies worse affected with the west coast dock strike - 10-day strike has already caused an accumulated backlog that will need to be cleared. Workers will need an estimated 10 weeks to clear this backlog. Ships carrying food and other perishables will be unloaded first. This is Very Bad News for toy manufacturers and apparel designers who source just-in-time inventories from the Far East, and whose annual revenues are heavily dependent on Christmas holiday sales. And there's also the possibility that an agreement will not be reached after the 80-day cool-off period. The companies worst affected: AEOS American Eagle Outfitters Inc ANF Abercombie & Fitch GPS Gap Inc. HAS Hasbro Inc. MAT Mattel PLCE Children's Place Retail Stores PSS Payless Shoesource Inc TOY Toys R Us Inc