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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael July who wrote (20381)	10/17/2002 1:43:16 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 36161

bond/rate top ? Michael I do not think so. For the interim yes, because I think we are getting 3 things here. 1. The Bond Market throwing it's huge weight around in the Institutional re-allocation/balancing to stocks...magnifying volatility. 2. The usual Prop-Job... I think the ESF wants to ride AND lever the Bond Market momenteum to put as much distance under this market and piercing that incredibly important DOW 7,000 level...and they are active here pushing up stocks imho. 3. The usual Gold smack-down that accompanies #2. For your individual Mortgage; it all depends on many of your own specific situations. If you can lock in 6.5 x 30 years - and that is a comfortable payment level for you... don't gamble & don't lose any sleep about not being able to nail the "exact" bottom...lock it in. That's still a great rate historically. The downside, is if this is indeed the turn.... then upon completion for your end loan - you could be facing 7.25-7.5 x 30, or you might get lucky and we have BLACK November arrive to the markets and we resume the BEAR....and you get 6.0 x 30... it's a gamble. New Construction loans are frustrating for the consumer... because you can't lock in "today's" rates for the entire 4-5-6 month construction process without paying heavy points/fee's. I think we'll see the mid DOW 6,000's without ANY Rogue Wave events... ie: a derivatives collapse -failure of a JPM etc, or another significant domestic bio/dirty nuke terror event. And with the penetration of DOW 7,000 - I think we may see new bond highs and new lows in the Mortgage Rates... but, I wouldn't gamble with my own loan. With a significant Rogue Wave Event...I think we see DOW 5,000 and we may see 30 year Mtg rates bottom at 5.0 - 5.5....but, I don't think you can "gamble" with your own home loan on whether we have another domestic terror incident, or major market rogue wave event... so, perhaps lock it in now, or within a few days... and if we see 5.0-5.5 x 30 down the road - maybe it will pay to refi then. *** Many times Mtg Lenders will ramp the rate/points very quickly on major market reversals like this... which get's them a huge rush to lock in rates & points (at higher levels) and then a few days later rates & points come back down a bit. If I were to "gamble"... that's how I'd play it... watch the next few days to a week for a little pullback and then maybe lock in that retracement. Shop hard & negotiate and you can usually cut at least 1.00 point off origination fee's/points to lock in your rate. good luck