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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tekboy who wrote (52732)	10/17/2002 4:50:25 PM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

Hi tekboy; Re: "I'm not sure I understand: you're worried that after we've won the war and are occupying the country, then some months later on there will some kind of violent resistance by the Iraqi populace against the occupying forces?" I'm not worried, I'm certain. This is a military fact of life that dates back several thousand years: (1) If you send boys with weapons into a foreign neighborhood, the local boys will fight them. The exceptions are when you're there helping them get rid of another group of foreign boys (like the Arabs in Afghanistan). (2) In an occupation, once the fighting starts, it is very difficult to stop it again, except by pulling out. To suppress violence with violence requires extremely high kill numbers. Five to ten percent is enough for most situations, such as was executed against Germany before her WW2 occupation. But these sorts of kill rates are no longer diplomatically possible. (3) Humans have a higher interest in holding their own territory than they have in controlling foreign territory. This (along with a large number of other factors) gives the defense an intrinsic advantage in an occupation. The US was only able to politically accept 60,000 deaths before Vietnam was given up as a lost cause, but by that time the Vietnamese had taken far greater casualties. This is the point that McNamara didn't figure out until too late. Israel won its conventional wars with the Arabs quickly and almost painlessly, but never forced the occupied peoples to be peaceful. The above three factors apply to that conflict, except that part number (3) does not apply to Israel proper. If we copy Israel's foreign policy, we will end up with Israel's problems. And eventually that means living in constant fear. (But before it reaches that point the US will pull out, as our homeland is not in the Middle East.) Also note that the Vietnam war was not supported internationally, and the result was that the US was isolated diplomatically. This is the consequence of what can only be described as a foreign policy disaster. -- Carl

To: tekboy who wrote (52732)	10/18/2002 10:23:22 AM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Saddam won another seven years by the greatest margin of victory the modern world has ever seen, yet he’s lost his hold on his people. The children want autographs. The soldiers want money. The U.S. military should distribute ball point pens and dollar bills in the field packs of all troops dispatched to the region. msnbc.com Kinda says it all. BB@CrankuptheHersheybarfactories.com

To: tekboy who wrote (52732)	7/23/2003 1:54:12 PM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Hi Tekboy; I'm wondering what you're thinking of the Iraq war now. To remind you, here's an exchange we had back last fall: Bilow, October 16, 2002 I agree with you that conquering Iraq should not be a problem, and that the military will unconditionally surrender fairly quickly. But the problem is the civilians, not the military. Wars in which one side wins with "maneuver", followed by an occupation, tend to be the ones associated with high amounts of guerilla warfare. Examples of this would be ... #reply-18123176 Tekboy, in reply: I'm not sure I understand: you're worried that after we've won the war and are occupying the country, then some months later on there will some kind of violent resistance by the Iraqi populace against the occupying forces? #reply-18126999 Bilow, in reply: I'm not worried, I'm certain. This is a military fact of life that dates back several thousand years: ... #reply-18127182 -- Carl P.S. The thread continued with this hilarious entry: LindyBill, in reply: You must be working on the premise that if we take out Saddam, and try to install a better Gov there, the average Iraqi will hate us for this and want to engage in guerilla warfare against us. Nobody that I have read, right or left, is predicting this kind of Scenario. You obviously have a different view of Iraq than everyone else. lindybill@whatareyousmoking.com #reply-18127247