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Politics : Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sea_urchin who wrote (15944)	10/18/2002 12:32:16 PM
From: Alan Whirlwind	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 82202

Right flank present bayonet. Proceed forward with extreme prejudice. Make that caution.

To: sea_urchin who wrote (15944)	10/18/2002 3:48:01 PM
From: sea_urchin	Respond to of 82202

>the analysis is purely subjective, like telling someone's fortune by reading the pattern of tea-leaves wavechart.com >>>Wave counting is quite subjective...and will usually result in as many forecasts as there are Elliott Wave forecasters. Because of this, it is often said by its harshest critics that Elliott Wave analysis is useful only in hindsight...which is to say that it is not very useful in predicting the future course of the market. <<< For me, it's not even useful in hindsight --- it's pure gibberish, eg this "analysis" of T-Notes Daily. elliott-wave-analysis.com >>>Despite some discomfort with the "less-than-ideal appearance" of the suspected wave (B), the working wave count still makes sense, and I see no reason yet to negate our wave interpretation of the Weekly chart which was presented in the previous update. As regards the wave structure of the Daily chart, the wave (c) is considered to be a Terminal pattern with the extended first wave. The key question now is whether the wave 4 is still developing, OR the entire wave (c) has already ended. As a rule, the wave 4 of a Terminal pattern does not retrace more than 61.8 % of the wave 3. Since, in our case, the wave 4 topped at a price, which lies close enough to the level corresponding to 0.618-retracement of the wave 3, it's reasonable to assume that the wave 4 is complete. If correct, the subsequent decline could be the wave 5. It should be noted here that the wave 5 has bottomed at the level, where its length is equal to 38.8 % of the wave 1. What it means to me is that the wave 5 might have completed too. If so, the wave (c) turns out to be a 5-th wave Failure Terminal pattern, and the price should retrace the wave (c) in 50 % or less of the time consumed by the wave (c). A break of the top of the wave 2 would be the first step of confirmation of completion of the wave (c). Until then, there remains a chance that the wave 5 is incomplete yet. The next target for the end of the wave 5 is determined by the 0.618-relationship between the lengths of the waves 3 and 5, with the corresponding price value being equal to approximately 5.51. If the price continues its decline and the length of the suspected wave 5 exceeds that of the wave 3 ( 5.767 ), the above wave count would be proven incorrect. As for the larger-degree picture, it would denote that the wave IV is unfinished, and, most likely, the market is in the wave (E) of a Contracting Triangle started at the high exhibited in 1993. <<<