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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (6271)	10/18/2002 11:07:05 AM
From: Terry D	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95474

RTS - The late 1990's capacity overbuild is a gift that keeps giving. I think it is a stretch to go from plunging semi cap orders to a double dip. The gap between the actual performance of the economy and the popular impression of it comes as the natural result of two disparate approaches to the subject: top-down and bottom-up. Aggregate corporate revenue growth in the consumer sector has accelerated notably between this year and last year – faster this year than in all but one of the past nine calendar years. That Sears is dead is what sells papers - but it is not news. Given what we know to be upward trajectories in areas such as consumer lending and aggregate revenue in general, commpanies blaming poor profit performance on a challenging macro are still ankle-deep in garbage. The difference between GDP growth (on average) during the 1999-2000 period and GDP growth (on average) since the fourth quarter of last year works is one percentage point: 4% versus 3%. The missing percentage point owes to capital spending, not a recession. Real GDP growth has accelerated markedly – to an average 3% over the past year from slightly negative (on average) during the five quarters prior. The rate of nominal, year-on-year growth has doubled, to 4%, its fastest pace in almost two years. The 5%-6% sequential increases in corporate revenue in the nonfinancial sector mark a notable improvement on the average 1% increases we saw last year – and match the average increase we saw in the six years beginning 1995. Only an exogenous shock of major scale can derail the recovery. Recoveries do not up and die all on their own, from within, in the absence of an outside force.