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Gold/Mining/Energy : Nuvo Research Inc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Montana Wildhack who wrote (11218)	10/18/2002 4:49:03 PM
From: SofaSpud	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14101

How important is it to you what the shareprice was before you read the announcement that: Dimethaid receives FDA approval or Dimethaid receives FDA rejection? What happened in the past doesn't matter. Oh, I can moan about what signals I missed, and try to learn from it. But you see, that's exactly why I can about the share price today. Actually, not the share price per se, but movements in the price. In a perfect world, there would be no leaks, no insider trading, no selective disclosure. In a perfect world I wouldn't have dropped a bundle on (take your pick of many: WCOM, MEL, PRX, CKM ....). But the fact is that the movement in the share price in those instances was indicative that bad news was getting out. Those of us who kept the faith in those instances were out of luck. When DMX goes from $8 to $6, even down to $4, I could justify it by the fact that news was increasingly overdue, and the market was perhaps pricing in an increasingly large risk premium given the fact that the company could run out of cash. At some point, though, the market may price in a death spiral. Sometimes the market does know. Not always. But sometimes. And sometimes it overlooks little micro-cap companies that actually do manage to hit a ball out of the park. That's the line we're all trying to walk here. You're right, of course. After the fact of the announcement it won't have really mattered what the share price was. Certainly if they announce FDA approval then I'll wish I'd had the nerve to buy more. If they announce rejection, then I'll wish I'd paid more attention to my gut.

To: Montana Wildhack who wrote (11218)	10/20/2002 2:12:20 PM
From: Montana Wildhack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14101

Oops. That's the ladies room. After writing the most massive post ever, I've decided not to post it (to the relief of some). I see it as a waste right now. So I will keep this short. Despite the current conditions I am the most optimistic at this time in comparison to any previous date. For 3-4 years I gambled that Rebecca (or anyone) could see the Pennsaid NDA through which was a large risk. I have not forgotten that all hinges on FDA approval or that it would be ideal to have JNJ selling it. Secondly, I will post the market size and finally I will post a grid of Earnings Per Share so that people asking themselves how to view the upcoming OXO shares will have my input. Market for NSAID's in the US: Year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Size % 8,000,000,000 9,200,000,000 10,580,000,000 12,167,000,000 13,992,050,000 0.03 240,000,000 276,000,000 317,400,000 365,010,000 419,761,500 0.04 320,000,000 368,000,000 423,200,000 486,680,000 559,682,000 0.05 400,000,000 460,000,000 529,000,000 608,350,000 699,602,500 0.07 560,000,000 644,000,000 740,600,000 851,690,000 979,443,500 The 2002 and 03 columns aren't relevant since maturity will not be achieved. These are not lofty goals for a branding expert advertising into the market most driven by advertising with a product that while different has some key features. Finally, based on the 4% line with the left number being the shares outstanding in millions here are the effects on EPS over the same years as above EPS 50 1.43 1.65 1.89 2.18 2.50 55 1.30 1.50 1.72 1.98 2.28 60 1.19 1.37 1.58 1.81 2.09 65 1.10 1.27 1.46 1.68 1.93 70 1.02 1.18 1.35 1.56 1.79 Using the 2004 line with the actual values being irrelevant the difference between having 50 and 60 million shares outstanding would be the difference between having $1.58 and $1.89. Material but not a decision maker. Use your own values and the materiality doesn't change. Use an example showing borderline earnings and its still irrelevant since either situation is equally poor. With cash, they've never had any. And they've never had a better story to tell to go get some. Good luck. Wolf