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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Anonymous who wrote (20999)	10/19/2002 12:11:42 AM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 21876

Anon, [edited] I own 1000 sh and lost some money. Now it's such a small percentage of the portfolio I might as well let it ride. [edit] BTW, a reverse split does not always backfire. Witness IOM which did a 1 for 5 about a year ago finance.yahoo.com Gottfried

To: Anonymous who wrote (20999)	10/19/2002 5:59:17 AM
From: EL KABONG!!!	Respond to of 21876

Hi Anonymous, While I don't really post on this thread, I do (or perhaps the correct tense of the word is "did") lurk here regularly. Earlier this week, I dumped my Lucent shares (in anticipation of the now announced reverse split). I also dumped Avaya (they "owe" much more in pension liabilities than what I think the entire firm is worth) and both my Agere "A" & "B" shares (a clean sweep for Lucent and all the spin-offs). In my opinion, the reverse split is a lost cause and a supreme effort in futility. The battle is lost. Practically speaking now, the company has only one viable choice (as far as I can see) and that is to declare bankruptcy and wipe the slate clean. It's a very difficult decision for them to make, as I'm sure that executives, the Board, rank-and-file employees, the pension fund(s), etc. hold tons of shares and perhaps even some of the debt. They can postpone what I see as the inevitable decision, but sooner or later BK is the only choice that makes any sense if the company is to survive in any semblance of its former self. Next month, next year, pick a time frame... Some of these telecommunications companies are going to go belly-up. It could be Lucent or Alcatel or Nortel or Corning or pick any other company of your choice. The bottom line is that the first company to declare BK is likely to emerge in far better shape than any of its competitors that don't, so (in my opinion) it's a far better thing to be at the head of the BK queue rather than waiting for another company to be in the vanguard when the unavoidable choice must be made. Again, this is all in my opinion. The industry could turn around on Monday morning, and the stock could rise to $20 by market close on Thursday. And the Tooth Fairy might leave an extra quarter under our pillows tonight, with which we might be able to buy another few shares of some telecommunications outfit... <g> No, the handwriting is now on the wall, and it's clearly legible. Someday I'll get back into the sector, but that day won't be anytime soon... KJC PS - Your assumption about a big loss was spot on in my case. This stock (along with the spin-offs) is my single largest investing catastrophe ever, in terms of total dollars lost. And I squarely blame McGinn for the losses. Had he been more forthright when he was at the helm, I think the losses that Lucent suffered might not be as great as they are now.

To: Anonymous who wrote (20999)	10/19/2002 6:34:15 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Respond to of 21876

LU is one of the top "widely" held stocks going, lot's & lots of people own a piece, I sold right at the AGR spin off, and just came back in buying 4 times what I had However she could go BK so I managed to hedge off by selling 2005 2.5 calls I'm in at .337 commissions and all and will go for broke & take my chances. ------ They are giving me 8 to 1 odds she goes belly up..because if she don't then 2.5 is very likely. --------- BTW You may own some and not know it, what funds or retirement plan are you in ? 1634 of them hold LU.

To: Anonymous who wrote (20999)	10/20/2002 4:54:50 PM
From: Alex Chilton	Respond to of 21876

Anon, not that it means much, but your impression is not correct for me. I own LU and her children. As of close Friday: LU + 5.21% AV + 195.51% AGR.A + 62.3% AGR.B + 58.29% Alex.

To: Anonymous who wrote (20999)	10/20/2002 5:52:44 PM
From: Techhelp	Respond to of 21876

I own shares of Lucent and have for a while and lost a great deal of money. I am concerned of the potential bankruptcy and what that will do for the rest of my investment. Anyone come up with a solid probability on the BK potential? Techhelp

To: Anonymous who wrote (20999)	10/20/2002 8:59:07 PM
From: Anonymous	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21876

Just heard Joe Kernan, whose on the special "Summit on Wall Street" being shown on MSNBC tonight, say that LUCENT will probably never come back ... even if they do a reverse split of 1 for 80. When he was challenged for saying that I think he said well maybe it'll bounce a little but please don't quote me on exactly what he said. I also saw floating by on one of those news ribbons earlier in the evening (can't say what network cause I wasn't paying attention) that LUCENT would seek a 1 for 25 split.

To: Anonymous who wrote (20999)	10/20/2002 9:34:21 PM
From: Anonymous	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 21876

When I posted on Friday - "I'm under the impression that nobody on this thread owns any shares of LUCENT. I thought everyone just visits to aggravate each other." I was pretty sure I'd get a few responses. As a retired LUCENT employee I'm holding plenty of LUCENT stock and I can say that I've lost a lot. I should be treating an ulcer but I'm not. My losses are mostly paper losses. When I retired my 401K was worth just around $100K. It is worth more than that at the moment and I'm too embarrased to say how much it was once worth. While I was playing and trading in and out of LUCENT within my 401K I made some great moves. One day I made a move that two days later resulted in a big move up. In two days I picked up a little over $50K (it was just a hunch move ... pure luck on my part), however, it wouldn't be long before that paper profit vanished. That was back early in 2000, right before LUCENT and then the market headed down and down and down. Later I moved out of LUCENT altogether only to come back in and start buying on the dips. Turned out to be a terrible game plan. When I got some AVAYA shares for the LUCENT I held I sold them and purchased more LUCENT. That was at $17 a share. Well, all that has gone up in smoke. One thing I think I've learned in the last seven years is to no longer be an investor. Don't buy and hold. That's a heck of a strategy. Set limits, have a plan, and be a trader. About two months ago I took a risk and moved into LUCENT ... risked a bundle and made a little over $6K about 8 or 9 trading days later. I then thought I'd do the same thing again when the stock price settled into something that looked like a risk could be taken again. Well, that hasn't happened. When LUCENT warned again last September 13 the market took the rug out from under her and she's paying the piper. And I agree with the one guy who posted earlier that Rich McGinn is a big reason why this stock has hit rock bottom. He wasn't honest when he was CEO and kept trying to prop up the company with flowery excuses and promising that the next quarter would be better when he should have come out and said the company was in trouble because sales were drying up quickly and he knew it. It'll be interesting to see what happens after Wednesday morning's quarterly announcement. I have to admit that it was nice to have some wealth on paper for awhile but I've been humbled. If I would have been disciplined enough to make the correct moves then, hopefully, my children would have had more to inherit, and in my opinion, they way things are going in this country they're going to need all the help they can get. Personally, at my age, I wish the interest rates would rise a bit so my CD's would give me a better return.