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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jimsioi who wrote (20465)	10/19/2002 10:55:50 AM
From: onedrill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Jim, On the attached short term chart it appears that the HUI could be in for a turn here as the ADX (14) day seems to indicate that we are oversold here as you can note we have not had -DI of 40 since late july 01 and you have to go back much longer then that to see -DI that high. That is not to say it could not stay 40 for awhile. Also, not the %R is in the turn range. stockcharts.com[r,a]daclyyay[d19990527,20021226][pb50!b200!c20][vc60][iUb14!La5,34,7!Ll14!Lk14][J6499636,Y]&pref=G The long term chart looks much different as the ADX -DI is hanging around 35 but not that the highest -DI is +-42 in Oct 00. The %R looks again like it could turn. MACD looks like we have more down trend. stockcharts.com[r,a]waclyyay[d19990527,20021226][pb50!b200!c20][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9!Ll7!Lk7]&pref=G But now that the US is training Iraq troops to help take over Iraq maybe we will get some upside action.

To: jimsioi who wrote (20465)	10/19/2002 1:59:12 PM
From: nspolar	Respond to of 36161

jims, right now I'm focusing on the count more than any targets, supplemented with the TA. Re the count I look for just as many things to see if it has been negated. As of now we should have a little fib up, a down, another fib up, follow by a down; to complete the structure in the XAU. We also need POG to hold its LT trend. Then the horns will really get polished. From there the timing gets fuzzy quickly, but there should be some very juicy gains off the bottom and they will probably go quickly. However, to expect a quick power through up and beyond levels reached this year is a little optimistic. Think that comes a little later, preceded by some corrections. I've maintained a hedge all the way down from the top. Probably start buying before the bottom is in. In one sense, we aren't that far. 10 to 15 XAU points is a lot on the one hand, and very little on the other. If it follows the plan I intend to be initially loaded with mostly 2/3 bagger stuff. But I'll take some gains along the way and roll them over to 20 bagger and beyond stuff. If gold goes through 400 there will be many, and you only have a hit a few. Won't be much NEM in my portfolio, except for some leaps maybe. I also think the gen market lows will go lower than most expect, eventually; and that gold indices could well go higher. We seem to live in a market of extremes and there is no reason to expect that to change. I'm not a big fan of the MOABO, in the sense that we hit some bottom and shoot back up. Seems more likely this market is just gonna grind folks to submission, with a lot of torture. The rise out of the ashes will probably be painful as well. That is another reason not to miss this op, if it comes. There may be less of them for a spate in the future.