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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (6310)	10/20/2002 2:03:16 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95487

HI Cary, I agree with your general market transition to consortiums and standardized specifications. The two exceptions are going to be Microsoft and Intel - if they have anything to say about it. I believe Intel will continue to package more features along with their lockhold on the microprocessor. After reading many of Barrett's comments,I think the next forced package will be wireless features added to the motherboard Of Intels complete microorocessor "package". It will include the micrpprocessor,the memory,and the wireless "LAN" radio chip.These chips use 802.11a and 802.11b(b being faster and out now) wireless standards.They are good for about 100 yards. As these islands of wireless radio become as prevalent as the ,at first scoffed at "cellular phone" - then Intel will create a reason for an upgrade. Much like Microsoft pushed itself into the tremendous growth of the internet by providing Internet Explorer basically free with their Windows Operating Systen (and destroying Netscape and still working on AOL) I believe Intel will keep a grip on their Microprocessor dominance by offering features like wireless radios being built into and completely compatible with their processors. Let's face it, Intel has 3 300 mm lines 2 in production.They've completely made the transition from .25 to .18 or .13.This leaves AMD close to 2 years behind and billions in expense behind.By the time they get to it marketshare may be so low that the efficiencies of 300mm might not be attainable due to low volume demand. Key to 300 mm is, there are just a few firms that can truly fully utilize the efficiencies of scale associated with the big wafers.Building them efficiently and then shutting down the line as a result of burgeoning inventory, is not the business model these guys are chasing. I think this fact is one of the dirty secrets that is slowing our technology boom with equipment makers. The first clue of this was Rick Hill saying he was surprised that so much of the tech upgrades Novellus was seeing was on the 200mm platform. I think the 200 pound gorillas are well ahead of the competition and plan to stay there, by being more efficient and muscling into new areas of fast growth - even if they have to give it away free. This bodes poorly for AMD, Intersil, and Agere. There is little doubt that the next big killer application will be wireless.It in itself, will force the upgrade cycle to begin in earnest - I hope as soon as early 03. Just my thoughts. We have all become data junkies and are now tiring of being tied to a desk top or a twisted pair of cable. Now we want our data and we want it mobile. Think wireless and think satellites. Bob