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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eashoa' M'sheekha who wrote (53215)	10/19/2002 4:04:53 PM
From: Nadine Carroll	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Not solvable is mostly correct, but I don't see the actions being carried out lately as working to do anything more than undermine Arafat when he should have just ignored him, since it is having just the opposite effect. Maybe he should have ignored him. But looking at the big picture, you can find support for the 'keep up the pressure' case -- when Sharon attacks, there is a temporary rallying round Arafat, followed by a further ebbing in his power; this pattern has been repeated several times. So I don't believe that it's having the opposite effect at all. The real argument against Sharon's last push was that it provoked an American reaction, which I call the 'will you just sit down and shut up until we decide about Iraq' reaction. For this reason alone, it was a big mistake. The PA is coming apart slowly, and I doubt it's in Israel's interests to give it a breather to regroup while Arafat still heads it. What they need to concern themselves with is when legitimate elections are held, what happens if the PALs re- elect him?Sharon will HAVE to deal with the legitimately elected representative, either directly or indirectly. Maybe his is what he fears the most? Maybe, but I think he fears another fake election returning Arafat over no opposition even more. Arafat's power has already ebbed to the point where competitors for an opposition have emerged -- Gen. Yahya, Abu Mazen, and Mohammed Dahlan are all on record severely criticizing Arafat's decisions. The PLC also forced Arafat to sign the Basic Law and has made several attempts (none successfully so far, however) at getting some power into the institutions of government. If Arafat can be booted out, we may see an actual Palestinian politics emerge. Elections should follow politics.