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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gersh Avery who wrote (60468)	10/20/2002 1:25:40 PM
From: Gersh Avery	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

crazy .. 10 people donating 10% of their income equils 1 person taking out a 100% income .. there is not 10 teenagers for every person about to retire .. The entire nation is insane .. Most working people expect to receive at least some of their retirement income from the stock market .. There ain't enough to go around.

To: Gersh Avery who wrote (60468)	10/20/2002 2:34:25 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Respond to of 94695

Gersh; It's complicated , there are bonds and other things that retirement funds invest in including venture capital thats not traded in the open market. ------------ The biggest players are not retail investers..or even mutual funds, but Employee retirement funds , all kinds and lots of them from Teachers to Firemen to Truckers to state workers all this is funded from TAX money.. It's a situation that didn't exist in the 20s.. So going back there is fruitless. ------------ AT some point demographics will come into play I still see that at 2008..but we "might have a strong rally before then" ------------- Look at my last 2 posts before this Message 18135405 Message 18134692 ---------- Now keep in mind when I saw long term yealds invert back in early 2000 I told every one I could the market was going to inplode I even called my sister and begged her to get out of the market. look at this chart finance.yahoo.com^TYX&d=c&k=c1&c=^tnx,^fvx,^irx&a=v&p=s&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l You see back when the short term yealds went on up higher than the long term yealds..well that will always kill the market. GreenSpan did that shit, and I don't think he is so stupid as to not know it would crippel the market I fully belived he did it on purpose, but I don't think he was smart enough to know how bad it would hurt. He damm sure over did it.. YEALDS should never invert. And while he could have closed them up enough to slow or stop the bubble letting them invert was like setting off a nuclear bomb to stop the bubble. ---------- Well now the yealds have a big nice spread..and it's good enough to slow down this fall and perhaps even send us up. BUT you keep in mind..if you ever see the Yealds invert again , get out of the market or go short. No matter what CNBC or the rest of the Bulls say. Inverted bond yealds are death to the stock market, Always. Short term yealds go way up when there is a lot of margin trading and stocks are leveraged to high heaven. On the other hand very low short term yealds makes "shorting" less and less profitable. The Brokers get short term rates for the money in your short account and when they can't make much they don't look for shares to give you to short as much as they would if short term rates were high. --------- Watch the spread on GOV intrest rates.. Turn off the noise of all such shit as what is on CNBC. Jim PS finance.yahoo.com^TYX&d=c&k=c1&c=^tnx,^fvx,^irx&a=v&p=s&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l interst rate spreads did not get right until July, they need to stay right for a while. Piss on this market if 10yr and 5 yr yealds pay more than the 30yr yeald.