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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (6331)	10/20/2002 6:24:01 PM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95487

Reuters RPT: Wall St Week Ahead-Stocks set to gain on earnings Sunday October 20, 10:48 am ET By Nick Olivari (Repeating column that initially ran late Friday) NEW YORK, Oct 20 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks are likely to rise this week -- if trends in earnings surprises for the current quarter and guidance for the next period continue to hold. "A lot of money is sitting around at half a percent ready to go to work and people are looking for an excuse," said Clark Winter, chief global investment strategist for The Citigroup Private Bank, with $163 billion in assets under management. "It's easier to talk about the market three to six months out, but if there are more good earnings surprises, and no astonishing surprises on the geopolitical front ... the horizon is positive."

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (6331)	10/20/2002 6:34:10 PM
From: Mark Adams	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95487

The jury is out because process technology is no longer a single company challenge but an industry challenge. Do you see this as holding true for specialized areas, ie SiGE, GaAs and perhaps mixed signal? Or does it hold true for a more limited set of the marketspace focused on large scale or high volume (ala uP, DRAM)? TIA

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (6331)	10/20/2002 10:11:04 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95487

Intel's advantage will come when there is another shortage. Listening to Morgan and Bagley (AMAT and LRCX) it sounds like there is gross under investment in the future except by a few. Even if the foundries invest, they will not be able to supply all the best to everyone. Intel will have fab capacity and thus they can find good IP that has a capacity shortage preventing it from really making bucks. Intel should be able to get a good deal on that IP because IP without fab capacity is obsolescence in the making. I like your ideas for ALTR and XLNX but I wonder if Intel will just license the technology? Another part of having your own working fabs is you can pick and choose the best markets to target your capacity in an upturn while the others will have more problems. I think the tradeoffs have been around for a long time. The reason you get rid of fabs is you don't have to carry them on the downturns but when times are good, they really help you. Interesting comparison here quicken.com they do look "reasonably priced" compared to Intel and they are a fraction of Intel's mkt cap but they sure don't generate much cash.