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To: ajtj99 who wrote (57145)	10/20/2002 7:18:04 PM
From: At_The_Ask	Respond to of 209892

Weekly Leading Index Falls 10/18/2002 ECRI gauge of U.S. economy fell in Oct. 11 week NEW YORK, Oct 18 (Reuters) - The U.S. economy will grow moderately in the foreseeable future, but battered investor confidence and further corporate layoffs could tip the country back into recession, a report showed on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute\'s weekly gauge of U.S. economic activity slipped to 116.5 in the week ended Oct. 11 from 118.1 in the previous week. "There is the risk of a self-fulfilling prophecy where businesses pull back because they fear a recession," and the retrenchment itself triggers a period of renewed economic contraction, said Lakshman Achuthan, ECRI managing director. But he added that "this latest reading is pointing to slower growth ahead, but it is not forecasting a recession at this point." A weak stock market and a growing number of claims for first-time unemployment benefits helped knock the index lower, Achuthan told Reuters. "Negative investor and business confidence is beginning to gain the upper hand," over gradual improvements in the real economy, Achuthan said. The index\'s growth rate, which smooths out weekly fluctuations, fell to -3.4 percent from -2.1 percent in the preceding week. The Weekly Leading Index is composed of a balance of seven major economic indicators. ECRI designs short- and long-term indexes aimed at predicting business cycles, recessions and recoveries in the world\'s leading economies

To: ajtj99 who wrote (57145)	10/20/2002 9:19:01 PM
From: Shack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

Max Pain was no doubt a contributing factor but the volume patterns suggest more (I know we have had this debate before). And we zoomed right by max pain on just about everything which nobody has mentioned. They left 60K calls on Softie at 50, QQQ was 22 although in the last two days max-pain looks like it rose to 23, and anyone who blindly believes in max-pain should take a look at how the Octobers finished on C. I am a believer in max pain to a large extent but I think there was more at play here and I believe we are going higher. The way the rally has unfolded, it looks more like a concerted effort to distribute stock and screw the public shorts (which according to Rydex are declining rapidly, but too many remain methinks). I still say the next dip is a buy.