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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David Lawrence who wrote (310016)	10/20/2002 10:37:36 PM
From: calgal	Respond to of 769670

Bush travels to aid tight GOP races By Judy Keen, USA TODAY URL:http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2002-10-20-bush-trail-usat_x.htm WASHINGTON — With 15 days to go until elections that will decide which political party controls Congress and governors' offices, the flight path of Air Force One may be the best gauge of Republican chances in key races. George W. Bush takes the stage during a campaign style rally to help Norm Colemann's Senate race in Minnesota. By Tim Sloan, AFP President Bush launches a big push this week that will take him to states where Republicans in close races need a last-minute boost. Candidates who are safely ahead or trailing so badly that the White House has written them off are less likely to share a stage with Bush, though there will be stops where the White House considers it important to make an appearance no matter what. Because Bush's itinerary is in many cases such a clear roadmap to at-risk candidates and top-priority races, his travel plans are fluid and many of the planned stops that are locked in are top-secret. On Friday, Bush began with a couple of nail-biters, stopping in Missouri and Minnesota to help Jim Talent and Norm Coleman in their too-close-to-call Senate races. (Related story: Minnesota's independent streak tested) Bush's destinations this week are a further clue to White House political strategy: On Tuesday, he'll visit Pennsylvania and Maine. Republican Mike Fisher is trying to narrow Democrat Ed Rendell's double-digit lead in the Pennsylvania governor's race. In Maine, Sen. Susan Collins leads her Democratic challenger, Chellie Pingree, but Bush's visit would provide insurance. Her victory is a must for the GOP, which hopes to erase Democrats' one-vote edge in the Senate. On Thursday, Bush goes to North Carolina, South Carolina and Alabama, where Republican wins are within reach. The beneficiaries: Senate candidates Elizabeth Dole in North Carolina and Lindsey Graham in South Carolina and Alabama gubernatorial candidate Bob Riley. Even when his stops don't include political rallies or fundraisers, a president's presence can shift votes in close races, says Matthew Dowd, the president's pollster. When they see Bush on their local TV news and on the front pages of their hometown newspapers, voters who otherwise might stay home on Election Day can be motivated to turn out for Republicans, Dowd says. "Small fluctuations can mean a lot in an individual race," he says. Bill Buck, a spokesman for the Democratic National Committee, sees it another way. Bush's attentiveness to politics, Buck says, reminds voters that he's "not focused on the state of the U.S. economy, ... which is one of the biggest concerns among Americans." Bush's travels will be interrupted by a meeting Friday with Chinese President Jiang Zemin and a weekend trip to Mexico for an economic summit. He hits the road again next week. A preliminary schedule for the final pre-election stretch included stops in Colorado, South Dakota, Wisconsin, Tennessee, Georgia, Florida and Iowa and possibly two more trips to Minnesota. That schedule is in flux. Iowa may be scrapped because some GOP strategists believe Republican Rep. Greg Ganske can't defeat Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin. Arkansas, where Republican Sen. Tim Hutchinson is in a tight battle with Democrat Mark Pryor, may be added. Another trip to Florida may be added if the president's brother, Gov. Jeb Bush, doesn't pull ahead of Democrat Bill McBride. Between now and Nov. 5, the president's calendar includes at least two free days for last-minute sprints to crucial states. Democrats complain that Bush's use of Air Force One for trips that help GOP candidates is unfair because taxpayers pick up the tab. Campaigns and political parties pay a share of other expenses when Bush goes to political events. Bush has gone all-out to elect Republicans this year. He attended 66 fundraisers and raised $138 million. History suggests that Democrats should be favored to retain their one-seat advantage in the Senate and pick up the six seats needed to take control of the House of Representatives. But many independent analysts believe that Democrats will hold the Senate but find it hard to win the House. Traditionally, the party in the White House loses seats in Congress in elections midway through the president's first term. In 1982, the first election after Republican Ronald Reagan took office, Democrats gained 26 seats in the House. In 1994, Republicans won control of both the House and Senate for the first time in 40 years, gaining 52 House seats and eight in the Senate. Contributing: Richard Benedetto