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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (53676)	10/21/2002 5:12:47 PM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 281500

Hawk, I must say that I question that Saddam has released political prisoners that are truly threatening his regime. More likely is that he has executed anyone that he feels truly threatened by, then released a bunch of small fry for the press. The "all is forgiven" mantra is Saddam's SOP for the "kiss on the cheek" before you die. This technique is well documented in "Saddam's Bombmaker." It runs like this: 1. Saddam forgives you, come home to Papa. 2. If you don't Mamma and son get a visit from the Mukhabarat or the SSO. 3. If you still say no, Mamma and Sonny got to the torture dungeon. 4. When you come back, then you go to the dungeon, never to be heard from again. What is most interesting is that he uses this technique when he feels a situation has gotten beyond his control. This may be a clear indication that his internal support is faltering and he needs to demonstrate that he retains full control by ultimately calling back many that he has released, just for show, internally. It is also may be a crude attempt to show to the world - "Hey, I'm not such a bad guy after all." So he's killing two birds with one stone. In some respects it also reminds me of his failed attempt to curry favor with the international community by letting go his western "hostages" just before Gulf War 1. So, this latest "dog and pony show" of his is instructive, in that Saddam is feeling the heat. It may also backfire in that it has shown international observers that his own people despise him utterly.