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To: slacker711 who wrote (2587)10/21/2002 2:21:37 PM
From: Eric L  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 9255
 
>> Japan's YOY Mobile Phone Shipments Decline for 15 Consecutive Months

neasia.nikkeibp.com

Source: NEAsia Online, Oct. 15

EXTRACT: The Japan Electronic and Information Industries Association (JEITA) announced the number of mobile phones (cellular phones, in-car phones and personal handyphones) shipped to the Japanese market in August 2002. According to JEITA's report, total shipments in August showed a 20.5 percent decrease to 3,331,000 units compared to the same month in 2001. It marked the 15th straight month decrease on a year-on-year basis.

Wireless Watch Japan says:

COMMENTARY: JEITA says dull demand for replacements is behind the decline in shipments. Looks like Japan's long, dark economic stagnation is finally starting to affect even -- Can it be? -- cell phone sales. Against this trend, there are a couple of interesting points to note. First, in the 4-month period from 1 April to 6 August, sales of KDDI's much-ballyhooed CDMA 1X 3G handsets reached about 1,645,000 -- that's 411,250 per month on average.

But sales of J-Phone's **2G** Sha-mail-enabled handsets more or less kept pace, with a total of 1,617,600 being sold for a monthly average of 404,400. Would you prefer a faster handset or one that can take pictures? Granted, several of the new KDDI models have cameras as well, but my argument is that after a certain point, speed doesn't matter as much as multimedia functionality.

Another point: shipments of PHS terminals are waaaay down, now at an 18-consecutive-month, YOY decline, at 73,000 units -- a whopping 64 percent decrease over August 2001. Is this the end for PHS? Two factors in its favor: data cards are still selling at least somewhat well, and PHS terminals continue top be sold outside Japan (otherwise why would there still be 15 makers here manufacturing the handsets?). See map at the link below for a list of countries now using PHS:

phsmou.or.jp <<

- Eric-



To: slacker711 who wrote (2587)10/21/2002 3:24:40 PM
From: Eric L  Respond to of 9255
 
re: Gloomy Feedback on UMTS, EDGE, Data Services from EMC

>> Operators are Cautiously Optimistic, as UMTS Loses Its Momentum

Claus Mortensen
EMC Cellular

e-searchwireless.com

Presenters and speakers at the Paris UMTS Conference, which took place on 3 and 4 October 2002, expressed a general consensus that the market will not see a full-scale commercial UMTS launched (referred to as Big Bang launches) in the coming years. Instead, operators will perform slow phased roll outs, complementing GPRS, as market demand for data services evolves, and as fully functional dual-mode handsets become available.

Uptake Of Data Services

The biggest obstacle to the future success of UMTS, seems to be making customers become willing to use, and to continually pay for the use of data services. The industry has not produced the 'killer application' everyone was talking about during the 2001 UMTS conference (). This year, several speakers were urging operators not to ignore voice component in UMTS, one speaker even called it the only killer application of 3G for years to come.

The other part of the process is to make customers actually pay for data services. The speaker from Siemens France said that the Monaco trial had not produced an application that would make customers pay more to use it. On the same note, lessons can be learned from the launch of GPRS in Slovenia. Mobitel Slovenia launched GPRS in June 2001, with a three-month free trial. When the operator started charging for the service, usage fell to about 8% compared with the previous month. Usage is now slowly on the increase.

Yet another example of slow, or failing uptake in data usage, seems to be sha-mail in Japan. One presenter claimed that only about 10% of pictures taken with camera handsets in Japan, are actually transmitted over the network. This could serve not only as a warning about future use of UMTS services, but also as a indication about what can be expected from MMS in Europe. Several speakers pointed out that it took several years for SMS to become the success it is today. Even though MMS is being heavily marketed by operators across Europe, interoperability issues, few and expensive handsets, may mean that MMS generated ARPU won't take off until 2004 or 2005. One speaker warned that MMS is largely over-marketed, and this could result in MMS becoming what he describes as the new 'WAP disaster'.

Handsets

The availability and stage of evolution of handsets, was one of the dominant topics of the conference. The non-availability of handsets was still to some extent, blamed for the present delay in the deployment of UMTS services. An actual example of this is the Monaco 'friendly user' trial, which has been halted until user-friendly handsets are to become available.

Another issue facing the handset manufacturers is that the certification scheme is far from ready. The scheme is due to start in March 2004, for the March 2002 version of release 99.

Network Planning Issues

Several operators presenting at the conference said that they are re-using existing GSM sites, and turning them into combined GSM/UMTS sites. This can ensure a speedier rollout, as fewer planning permissions are needed for new UTMS base stations. Some speakers, however, stressed that relying too heavily on re-using GMS sites, could cause problems due to the differences in characteristics between UMTS and GSM. One such characteristic is 'cell breathing', which causes problems when planning a UMTS network. Cell breathing, means that the geographical area effectively covered by a W-CDMA cell, changes with the amount of traffic in the cell. This can potentially result in dropped calls for users in the cell's periphery.

EDGE

In spite of the conference title, CDMA and 1xRTT were referred at times. Australian Telstra described its dual migration plan for its GSM and CDMA networks, with EDGE possibly being deployed on GSM. AT&T Wireless also expressed plans for deploying EDGE, together with some South American operators. A quick survey among European operators in the conference suggested that EDGE is not seen as a feasible migration path in Europe.

Conclusion

Despite all the problems highlighted by speakers at this year's UMTS Conference, the overall mood among delegates seemed to be one of cautious optimism. There seemed to be a predominant feeling that even though we're not 'out of the woods' yet, the worst is over.

The players in the market now seem focused on getting on with the work of making UMTS function properly, getting the handsets to market, and eventually commencing rollout of networks – albeit in a more cautious way than they had originally envisaged.

The issues to be dealt with that were highlighted at the conference were; Interoperability issues, availability of dual-mode handsets, development of services and applications, and the question of how to make customers interested in using and actually paying for data services.

Put simply, this means that many of the fundamental requirements for making UMTS a success, still need to be resolved. <<

- Eric -



To: slacker711 who wrote (2587)10/21/2002 3:52:47 PM
From: Eric L  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 9255
 
On stage with you ...

... and the guy that buys stock in forklift manufacturers:

Charlie, Chicago: Last Thursday, PCS announced that they have only signed up 120,000 Vision (3G) users, a huge disappointment. Would you care to comment on the Vision launch, why the take rate is so looooow compared to Korea/Japan, etc., and what affect if any the new unlimited handset Vision plans? Thanks.

Andy Seybold: First, it is just starting, second, they don't make it clear what it is, and third, don't confuse the total number of CDMA2000 1X VOICE users in Korea and Japan with the number of data users in the U.S. When I purchase a 1x phone as a voice user I get counted in Asia and Japan--and by the way--that is the ONLY phones they are presently selling--users don't even know that they are getting 3G phones--just a new phone with better battery life--so we cannot compare these systems--having said that--have you tried buying data services in ANY retail store of ANY carrier? Good luck!!!


- Eric -



To: slacker711 who wrote (2587)10/22/2002 1:38:17 PM
From: Eric L  Respond to of 9255
 
re: Northstream Whitepaper on EDGE (February, 2002 Update 2002)

You may have seen this but there have been a few updates.

northstream.se

What could change this situation into global acceptance of EDGE is explicit, public backing from leading GSM operators with an IMT-2000 licence. The strategy so far employed by this operator segment has been to wait and see how the situation evolves. Northstream believes that there is reason for these operators to make a careful evaluation of what EDGE can do for them. If an increased momentum among these operators ultimately would transform EDGE to a mainstream technology, its undisputable technical merits could be exploited, foremost as a complement to WCDMA in a 3G roll-out, and subsequently in optimising use of existing GSM spectrum.

It should be noted that a lot has changed in 8 months but this is still a pretty important reference.

I'd like to see them do an update around end of year.

<< This falls in the category of dumb questions since the abbreviation for basestation is BTS (base transceiver station).... >>

I wondered when Ilmarinen was going to furnish you with yet another link to our favorite BTS. <g>

I thought Big Guys answer was a tad hokey ...

Transceiver IS the base station for a cell site--so if a new one is required it means replacing the one that is there with a new one.

... in that he essentially intimated that a single transceiver is the base station for a cell site (which in some instances it is or could be). Usually the BTS cabinet particularly in a macro cell holds a rack for multiple transceivers and such has been the case since the prehistoric days of GSM Phase 1.

the antennas and cable can remain the same but the transceiver--or base station must be changed out

He's right about that except he is again intimating that the transceiver is the base station when in fact the cabinetry and frame are important components of the BTS.

Just picking nits. <g>

I am not actually sure (wish I knew) that in an EDGE upgrade the transceiver actually has to be changed out. Way old BTS's yes. Newer ones (but pre-EDGE enabled) I'm not sure. I am under the impression that a module or card or board can be swapped. I've been looking for an article I clipped on this or thought I clipped but haven't yet found it.

Perhaps Ilmarinen has some insight. I've never seen a transceiver outside of the rack, only installed with the cabinet door open, and I really never even paid much attention to that.

- Eric -



To: slacker711 who wrote (2587)10/23/2002 2:44:15 PM
From: Eric L  Respond to of 9255
 
re: Nokia funded Bitfone OTA Firmware Update Solution

Oliver Thylmann wrote an InfoSync article and interview on Bitfone shortly after CsBIT.

I missed it on the first go round.

Here it is.

>> Phoning the Bits in Place

Oliver Thylmann
InfoSync
05.03.02

infosync.no

If you've ever been annoyed by having to turn in your mobile phone to upgrade its firmware, Bitfone has a solution - Oliver Thylmann had a quick chat with them to learn more.

Bitfone Corporation, funded by among others Nokia Venture Partners, recently demonstrated their over-the-air firmware update technology, called mProve, which enables carriers and mobile phone manufacturers to deliver firmware and software updates to mobile phones over the air. Of course, we had to find out what all of this means for you - Joe Consumer.

Put in a slightly different manner, Bitfone's mProve solution is the first product to update the core operating system and major applications such as micro-browsers, Java Virtual Machines (JVMs), and messaging applications, while the phones remain in the hands of its user.

Bitfone's mProve solution "enables mobile phone manufacturers and wireless carriers to reduce warranty and recall costs, drive down customer service costs, and decrease customer churn caused by firmware and software problems", which for the customer simply means that all the bugs in your handset can be ironed out through means of a firmware upgrade, without it being necessary to ship the phone to the manufacturer or going to a service partner.

"The key to success for wireless services is providing a reliable, compelling user experience," said Gene Wang, chairman and CEO of Bitfone Corporation. "Wireless customers will always want access to the latest, most updated features and fixes. mProve meets the demand of wireless users to update phones in their hands, rather than through replacement or service center visits."

Mobile phones are growing increasingly complicated, and that is a trend which will nothing but continue - which means that more and more bugs will creep into phones. That, however, should not mean your phone will have to pay ever more frequent visits to the manufacturer or a service partner to get the latest firmware upgrade.

What we wondered, though, was how they made all of this work, and so we chatted up Sunil Marolia, Bitfone’s Marketing Manager, to learn more.

Oliver Thylmann: Among other things, you state that your technology does not require any hardware changes in phones; that leads me to presume it needs software changes - doesn’t it?

Sunil Marolia: This is correct. The phone must be embedded with a small software agent which we refer to as our mProve Agent. This agent is responsible for downloading, verifying, and applying the updates to the firmware. Typically, to produce a fault-tolerant solution for updating the phone's core OS, you would need to double the available flash memory so that you can store the new firmware while operating on the old. Our mProve solution does not require doubling the memory and can update the core OS of the phone, with full fault-tolerance, without requiring any hardware changes to the device. It should be noted that this is not something the consumers can download and then have the functionality. Our Agent must be embedded into the phone at the time it's manufactured or when the firmware is flashed into the phone. Therefore, we are working with manufacturers globally under NDA (Editor’s note: Non-Disclosure Agreement), to embed our mProve Agent into their phones.

Oliver Thylmann: Is your solution independent of the operating system that runs on the device?

Sunil Marolia: This is correct. There are two reasons for this. The first is that the mProve Generator, which produces the ultra small update packages is object independent. It does a byte level comparison using a proprietary comparison algorithm. To the Generator, firmware images are just an array of bytes, it doesn't care what it is. Therefore, any OS, content, application, can be compared to another, without regard to what the actual functionality of that code is.

The other component is the mProve Agent residing on the device. This is also independent of OS and just translates the update packages to turn the old version of firmware, into the new. It also downloads the update packages and verifies them, but the manner in which the Agent is constructed, enables it to be easily portable to any OS.

(Editor’s note: For the non-developers among you, mProve views software as what it is - just a string of ones and zeros - and does not care for what task the code performs but merely uses it as a comparative base.)

Oliver Thylmann: From my limited understanding, I would presume that it just resides somewhere in memory and handles it from there. Does that mean that the amount of time it takes to perform the update depends on how much of the phone’s Flash ROM is being updated, or how large the update is?

Sunil Marolia: The download time is dependent on the size of the update package. However, the mProve Generator analysis is not straight differencing. It uses a number of comparison rules to efficiently build the update package. Therefore, even if there are significant changes in the firmware, the update package can still be quite small, on the order of 1% to 10%, typically. In our demonstration at 3GSM (Editor’s note: 3GSM World Congress held in Cannes, France, in mid-February), version 1 and 2 of the firmware was 1.7 MB, and the update package was only 20 KB. But more importantly, the changes affected a significant amount of the firmware code and the amount of changes to the firmware will affect the amount of time to update it. In the case of our example at 3GSM, the update took about 2 minutes to apply once the package was downloaded.

Oliver Thylmann: I assume the "we can flash it without needing double the flash space" is one of the NDA parts - which quite frankly bugs me, since I can’t help but wonder how you fit double the amount of data into the same space. If there is no room there is no room, or is there?

Sunil Marolia: The update portion of our solution is proprietary, but to give you some idea of why we don't need to double the memory... the update package created by the mProve Generator is just a small fraction of the total firmware code size. Therefore, we only need to store this small amount of data in order to update the entire flash memory. How we manage to apply the updates with fault-tolerance and no additional memory is only discussed with potential customers under NDA.

Oliver Thylmann: Will this entire solution in some way be invisible to the user, so that for instance the update procedure can be initiated from the network side? I assume the network operator or phone manufacturer can decide that though - as I quite frankly wouldn’t be very happy if my phone suddenly decided to upgrade itself whilst I was talking to someone :)

Sunil Marolia: Bitfone provides a platform for the manufacturers, but the manner in which they wish to interact with their customers is up to them. There are methods to push updates which include provisioning SMS messages among others. However, it is our recommendation that the updates not be invisible to the user. Since we are updating the core OS of the device, there is a point in time during the update when the phone is no longer functional as a phone. Therefore, we recommend that the user be given a choice as to whether or not to accept an update.

Oliver Thylmann: What about making your solution work on older phones? For example, I have a Siemens ME45, and a new version of its firmware was announced. I’m pretty sure it cannot be updated with a system like yours in place only on the network side - but would it be possible if the new firmware included mProve capabilities to update the phone for later firmwares over the network?

Sunil Marolia: There are server side components which will host the updates on the network which will be controlled by manufacturers and/or wireless operators. But your assumption is correct... the mProve Agent can be retrofitted onto old phones if it is included in the new firmware. So, for your Siemens ME45, if the next firmware had the mProve Agent and you had it flash upgraded by cable, then the follow-on updates would not require you to visit a retail center, or send in your phone for future updates. Instead, they could be delivered and applied over-the-air. Most likely however, you will start to find the technology on newly released phones, as opposed to the phones which are currently on the market. Also, this technology works on 2, 2.5, and 3G networks.

Oliver Thylmann: Can you reveal anything about when we could expect phones with your technology to trickle into the market - or even better, tell us whether any manufacturers have already signed up for your solution, and if so which ones?

Sunil Marolia: We are seeing significant interest from manufacturers globally, however, we can’t discuss specific customers at this time, as we are working with them under NDA. We will keep you posted with more information as it becomes public. <<

- Eric -