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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (83474)	10/22/2002 9:39:44 PM
From: Tom Pulley	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 99985

Bobby, thanks to you and Jim Bryan for all the sites with the equity put/call ratios. Some short term indicators I follow are getting into overbought territory. However, I'm sitting tight and staying 100% invested staying with the theory that we've hit an intermediate term bottom and the market still has plenty of upside. The plot below shows that there have been very few occasions since 1982 where a weekly stochastics (39/13/7) has hit this low (20) without a 1-3 year bull move. stockcharts.com[e,a]waclyyay[d19820101,20021022][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb39!Lp39,13,7]&pref=G These bull moves ranged from gains of 65% to 165% so the 12% move we've seen off the bottom has lots of room to grow. Of course, the one notable exception was the March'01 bottom which bounced up about 20% only briefly and then headed back down. So far my timing model isn't indicating that we will have a repeat of that but only time will tell. In the meantime, I'm staying bullish although I expect we'll see a small correction from this move. Hopefully the behavior of the indicators during the first correction will give a hint as to whether this was another bear correction or is the start of an intermediate term bull. Anyone else have some thoughts as to whether this move up has been a bear correction or start of a bull move? Tom