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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: w0z who wrote (6384)	10/22/2002 7:58:05 AM
From: orkrious	Respond to of 95530

07:44 ET CYMI Cymer downgraded at Merrill Lynch (25.41) Merrill Lynch downgrades to SELL from Neutral based on the following reasons: 1) believes co's 2003 outlook should decline more rapidly than consensus, 2) switch to Argon Flouride lithography is meeting technical delays that could slow price and margin expansion on top of weakening industry unit demand, and 3) valuation.

To: w0z who wrote (6384)	10/22/2002 9:45:59 AM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95530

Bill, I simply meant there must be an indirect correlation between high dividend yields and interest rates. Looking over the data I dug up it seems as though the last couple bear market bottoms were formed when interest rates were much higher. Inflation was much higher then too. Today we border on deflation. If you read through all the posts I made on the subject you will see that I believe the S&P 500 today still has too high a PE value with dividends too low to be heralding a market bottom. I will grant to those who disagree that today's low interest rate environment does make a difference when compared to 1974 and 1980. So I am not sure what level of PE, or dividends, to assign the S&P 500 at what should be a bottom for this bear market. Many thanks to all those who added their viewpoints to this discussion. You poked a few holes in my theories. That is a good thing. I guess we will have to let the market decide where the bottom is and when. RtS