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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: zonder who wrote (53843)	10/22/2002 9:03:50 AM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

Of course it would hurt oil companies. The big hit would be to the oil exploration guys. The off shore rig business would go into the toilet. Be a lot less money floating around in Texas. Those that believe in the "Bush/Cheney oil conspiracy theory," like Win, would have a lot to explain.

To: zonder who wrote (53843)	10/22/2002 9:09:34 AM
From: John Carragher	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 281500

I believe you are being very optimistic in $17 bbl... first we do not want to see Saudi and the other opec nations collapse. It would not be in our interest.. Second, integrated oil companies get their profits from more the than the cost of a barrel of oil.. Yes, exploration and producing would get hurt in selling lower cost crude from their own wells or long term contracts.. On the other hand.. lower crude would be great for increasing world demand.. Hence refineries would be running at maximum capacity and marketing would be out full ... These two groups imo would more than offset any losses in the reduction of a barrel of oil... Been there done that.. John ps did you know a major oil corp back in the 70's honored their long term contracts with Saudi and paid a premium and sucked up the difference in loss to maintain consistent supplies. Balance of oil is very complex situation. If you think IRaq. oil and our getting control over the oil fields is going to drop oil to $17. I can assume you under estimate the operators of these fields...