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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GVTucker who wrote (171708)	10/22/2002 1:12:44 PM
From: chomolungma	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

it would behoove you to go back a ways on the data. I've gone back pretty far and don't see it. If you go back before the fifties, you run into a completely different environment. For a time the Fed actually pegged long-bond rates. My personal feeling is that comparing those times to the present makes comparing apples to oranges look rational. That's the biggest problem I have with those who come up with "average" P/Es for the last century and say anything above 15 is high. But I suppose it comes down to your forecast of where the American economy is headed the next couple of decades. If you believe we are following the Japanese, then it doesn't take much analysis to avoid stocks and just take that 1% treasury rate with a smile and a thank you. I don't fall into that school. I see 4%, or greater, GDP growth for the next 20 years and corporate profits growing a couple of points in excess of that. The fed and low inflation will keep interest rates low and investors will bid stocks back up above 20 times earnings to give them a earnings yield comparable to a 5% bond.