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To: stockman_scott who wrote (9487)	10/22/2002 11:26:50 PM
From: Sig	Respond to of 13815

>>> There are lots of forcasters out there>> Far too many are employed in 'looking after' the wage-earners money. With direct deposit, he doesn't even get to touch it(g). It just goes into the 'system' which he trusts( but not so much anymore) to handle his savings, make a decision on where to put it( tech stocks, Ene). My argument that we are going down is that there are milllions engaged in banking , brokerages, and even government that are taking their cut of the wage-earners apparent savings. ( if he has credit cards or mortgage there may be no savings) The savings pie is vanishing and many of those millions will become unemployed and their contribution to the pie is less. A vicious circle. For the Dow chart below, each of the cycles different and the eye is looking for similarities which can be a misleading thing to do. But overall I think our problem is more like 1929 than the other cycles. From 1920 to 1929 we had the Florida land boom, the Gay Paree, the popularity of the auto, and a general celebration of winning the war and being at peace. Of being on the 'right' side. geocities.com Conclusion 1: We have peaked out and since the average high to high has been around 30 years we wont be up for a while. Do we now continue down? Much harder to say but its not looking good. Today is far different than 1929. Jobless then had zero income. Today we have unemployment comp, job training grants, welfare, etc Companies may fare far worse, with Harvard BS grads involved in very complex machinations in regard to financing, parachute design work, bond sales, options exercises, and reporting profits when there are none. None of which contributed to reducing costs of product or increasing efficiency It will take years for most to change and overwrite all that booklearning with a new attitude that permits survival in a declining marketplace. Some will never learn and an investor has to be very wary of their claims to have changed or that they have "fixed things" (to be continued ) Sig .