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To: stan_hughes who wrote (199366)10/22/2002 4:44:41 PM
From: yard_man  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 436258
 
think I won't get squat, eh? Shoulda taken the lump sum while there still was one, eh? Now all I get is lumps and no sum, eh? well whose fault is that, big boy?!!



To: stan_hughes who wrote (199366)10/22/2002 7:06:10 PM
From: James F. Hopkins  Read Replies (6) | Respond to of 436258
 
Stan; A good find..I saved it.. A portion of the Summery is sure worth posting here it is
----------
< My notes in brackets >
August 12, 2002
Summary of Findings
State pension assets grew only 1% from 2000 to 2001, to $1.74 trillion, while liabilities grew 10% to $1.62 trillion.
<The direction and RATE that is moving is alarming >
-------------
51% of state retirement systems are underfunded; the average underfunded plan has a ratio of assets-to-liabilities equal to 83%.
< Remember this was last June 2001 it's at least 75% by now >

The fiscal health of retirement plans varies widely. West Virginia has the lowest funding level at 45%,
and Florida has the highest at 140%.

Illinois has the largest dollar unfunded liability, $20.8 billion, equal to 85% of its state
< WHAT 85% of the state buget would have to be used to bring this up !!! >>

Four states Nevada, West Virginia, Oklahoma, and Oregon have unfunded liabilities that exceed
state budgets


Because state pension plans report with a significant time lag, the funding ratios given in this study do not fully reflect the current bear market in stocks and, consequently, unfunded
liabilities will increase markedly when June 30, 2002 reports become available.
----------
Wilshire forecasts a significant 10 to 15% decline in funding ratios at the next reporting cycle. The likely result is that the percentage of underfunded state retirement systems will grow from
51% to 75% of State pension

It's very likely worse than the 10 to 15% decline
that was project; also Those who were ahead last year seem
to have had the more risky portfolios and have likely dropped
harder than the rest To get the full 30 page report back up
to Stan's post and hit the link

Jim
PS
keep in mind agencies reporting these figures
have every motive to dress them up in the best
light, some of the projections such as anticipating
8% interest returns was way out in left field.



To: stan_hughes who wrote (199366)10/22/2002 8:23:58 PM
From: ild  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 436258
 
Stan, great find!
Percentage of equities in pension funds is historically very high. As contraryinvestor.com recently noticed if pension funds lower their assumption rates they may also be able to lower the amount of equities they have.
I guess 2002 "underfunding" numbers to be significantly greater.
As far as I understand states and counties can just increase taxes. Teachers will have to increase actual contributions.