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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Win-Lose-Draw who wrote (11902)	10/22/2002 6:29:57 PM
From: LTK007	Respond to of 30712

Gotta go eat my dinner and watch the news, i will get back 18-1 versus 8-1. I cringed when i read that , but we are talking Buffet; a meticulous stock picker(and who has no problem with cost averaging down), and anything he says can NOT be applied to random picks,random buying. And he would consider 8-1 in the right stocks as magnificient:) max

To: Win-Lose-Draw who wrote (11902)	10/22/2002 8:25:16 PM
From: LTK007	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 30712

i am still burping but can't leave this untied. So i will finish. I am now quoting from NedDavisResearch data. The average P/E based on 12months trailing earnings over the past 25years is 17.94-1. And over the past 50years the P/E trailing has been 16.61, based data complete through 2001.At the end of 2001 the SPX had dropped from 50-1 to 25-1. SPX has dropped significantly since then, it's P/E ratio is nonetheless 36.1. And those who do HONEST projections for 12-month ahead at SCARY levels such that the projected future earnings by the WallSteet conmen and ladies, and the FedModel are a total and dangerous flim-flam.In other words the market RIGHT NOW is severely overpriced and any further up action will put us right back where we were in spring 2000, based on P/E--wild isn't it. Buffet border line for being marginally safe is 18-1 based on companies that he has personally calculated its forward growth. He likes 15-1 better and he feels levels as seen in 74 and 1982 are load the boat time(in specially chosen picks) This rally has shot us from an SPX P/E on 9/30/2002 of 27-1 to 36-1.Gees another 100 points and SPX will be well over 40-1. Bargain levels are levels below 10-1(on a down move), and these points have occurred 10 times in 75 years. But if you bought at between 9-1 to 10-1 in 1949 you got hurt as 5.9 was to follow and it did not get back to above 10-1 until 1953/54. NedDavis SPX rates between 19 and 20-1 as expensive and we have not broken below that level since 1996 and in 1994 we were about 15-1. Here is the chart to peruse but please note the P/E of today of 36-1 is not showing. As the Davis chart last entry was for 9/30/2002. comstockfunds.com