<font color=red>DOGHOUSE BLUES</font>
"I think the first leg down will be motivated by popped bond market
it may not be severe, but enough to turn real estate prices down from tighter finance reqmts and more jobs lost
we have a potential for a vicious cycle here, since lower RE prices mean less consumer REFI cashouts, lower spending, poorer earnings, more layoffs, lower spending, more mortgage defaults, lower RE prices, etc
and then you get the USDollar decline picking up speed bigtime, which only adds power and thrust to the Vicious Cycle
I think the second leg down will be motivated by something tragic demographically
sure, we could have more terrorist events that damage our collective psyche, inhibit our love of travel, suppress our national spirit
but I refer to something more engrained and tragic
like a GoGo Generation of Boomers concluded "WE FUCHED UP"
we had the world as our oyster, and we blew it
we spent money on credit, bought property on credit, took vacations on credit, bought furniture and wardrobes on credit
AND NOW WE ARE BEING LIQUIDATED
we turned the stock market into a casino savings account
we lost most of our savings
BUT WE ALSO LOST OUR PENSION
we lived for today, partied like there was no tomorrow
AND NOW THERE IS NO TOMORROW
we were lured and suckered into stocks (not bonds) by the graybeard older generation, and were killed, transferring our wealth to the Hamptons
WE SURRENDERED OUR WEALTH TO THE OLD SQUARES, AS THEY SOUGHT REVENGE ON THE HIPPIE GOGO'S
not only did we destroy our way of life, we destroyed our nation's banking and currency systems
we turned banks and big businesses into casinos with a mountain of derivatives that to this day have not ended in their explosions
we destroyed our USDollar with endless more mountains of debt, which will never be paid back
we turned our economy into a SOUTH AMERICAN BANANA REPUBLIC
then America slides into the dubious status of JUST ANOTHER COUNTRY
this realization epiphany is due somewhere around 2004-05
that is my guess
the reaction to the economy and households will be interesting
it wont be replete with largesse and proligacy and excess
it will involve a desperate attempt...
- to urge govt to increase pension plans thru Sochacurity, just when SS is deemed broken, insolvent, destroyed, dead, kaput
- to save more than usual, sequestered into our homes, spending little, joining few community projects, surging with obesity and couch potato cable TV pursuits
- to curse the foreign carpet baggers who enter our nation from China, as the entire Asian continent enjoys a decade of prosperity from mfg prowess, strong banks with all the gold we sold them at the lows, and tremendous cash flows from exports
- to fight off social stresses, rising financial duress, and emerging national chaos
if the Second Coming hasnt occurred by 2010, then the USA economy might revive once again, like a phoenix from the financial ashes, but only if the GoGo Boomers have been cleansed of balance sheet debts thru bankruptcy
a farfetched scenario? think again, think Argentina
this spring I predicted 20% of Americans would undergo bankruptcy
how is that prediction faring so far?
almost 400,000 individual BK's per quarter, and rising"
AND:
"STOCKS AND BONDS BOTH LOST GROUND TODAY!!!
all signs are indicating the gold base is now building
or built
RRussell calls it massive accumulation
Puplava calls it an inverted Head & Shoulder
numerous mentions of strong hands holding shares now
with AlQaeda, Sodomy, HezBollah now coordinated, methinks bigtime reallife shite is coming soon
if snipers show up in other cities, this could cause social panic
not just deaths, but disrupt the economy
reminds me of the anthrax incidents
fear is good for gold, I hate the type of fear, but gold is good
but the biggest of the big platforms is the gradual deterioration of the Treasurys
this topping period may take a while to break down
Sinclair thinks it is real soon
Russell thinks 3.0% flat TENS yield is possible
Mauldin thinks lower TENS yield is coming
meanwhile, the USdollar is lower now than Friday 4pm
once again, STOCKS AND BONDS LOST TODAY !!!
Dow down 88 pts, off lows of -150
TENS yield up 3 bpt, down from highs of 3.5 bpt
the Treasurys are breaking down
I do expect for them to rally again
but for now I count three days with both stocks & bonds losing
this is a very big signal of trouble" |
