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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (54082)	10/23/2002 1:50:03 AM
From: Nadine Carroll	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Once Iraq is settled, Hizbollah will be next on the list. They will go down as the result of Iran and Syria ceasing to support them. They may suffer a military defeat by Israel in the meantime, but the real defeat will be lack of money. We may be directly involved, or only from the outside. Too early to say. I don't think it will wait that long. My bet is that Hizbullah will start shooting in earnest (they are shooting now) as soon as the war starts, in an attempt to open a second front (my enemy's enemy is my friend).

To: LindyBill who wrote (54082)	10/23/2002 10:10:03 AM
From: JohnM	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

I read part one of "Inside Hizbollah" by Jeffrey Goldberg in the "New Yorker" today. I think John agrees with me that it is an excellent piece of Journalism, and probably a correct portrayal of Hizbollah. The Hizbollah positions on Israel were coming from casual conversation with Goldberg, not as rhetoric to an audience. If you get a chance, be sure to read part II as well. It focuses on South America. Equally interesting. I agree that these are well done. As to their truth, I, obviously, can't say. They have the ring of it, however. I do have one difficulty. Goldberg's arguments depend on the reliability of his sources and his accuracy in reproducing what they tell him. I have no way to evaluate that as yet. It reminds me of Seymour Hersh's writing in that it depends on the same variables. In Hersh's case, however, we have a long history of writing and criticisms no which to draw. With Goldberg, it's more difficult. Does anyone know anything serious about Goldberg? I saw something to the effect he is at the Woodrow Wilson Institute in Washington right now. Is that true? Does that mean anything?

To: LindyBill who wrote (54082)	10/23/2002 10:11:10 AM
From: carranza2	Respond to of 281500

Hi, Bill. Absolutely correct, though I might quibble about the money part a bit. Hizbollah will be history in Lebanon when the US goes after Iraq. Whether Israel will act against it at the end of the operation or before, I don't know. Can't say whether its funding will dry up after the Iraq operation, but I would doubt it. Its funding may come from elsewhere and it may never stop. The danger is that Israel's coming efforts against Hizbollah may create a new PLO-style group that will stretch its web worldwide. Hizbollah may actually end up a terror threat in the US. We've already seen some signs of its domestic activity.