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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (17313)	10/23/2002 12:30:52 PM
From: Steven C. Vartan	Respond to of 23153

CSFB, for what it is worth, opines that this is a bear market rally that should run out of gas with a 20% rise in 5 to 11 weeks from Oct 10 with a peak on the S&P at 940. They cite corporates as net buyers as a trigger plus capitulation. They opine that this is not the start of the bull for four reasons: neutral valuation (17.3 x normalized 2002 eps), need another $150 billion deleveraged from corporates, still excess capacity (capex to depreciation ratio still above long term average), and last that there continues to be policy paralysis in europe and Japan dealing with interest rates and deflation. My view is that there is some gaming of the market going on and as was posted earlier the huge growth in hedge funds makes for huge herd movement and quick sqeezes for the shorts. Don't have the technical background or facts to support this notion but the huge quick reversal seems to indicate this to me.

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (17313)	10/23/2002 12:51:30 PM
From: pvz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

KB, I suspect the money is coming out of bonds and the rally is camouflaging a further outflow from equities, and the resulting cash is quietly leaving the country. It isn't happening now, but it will most likely be evident before too long. Look at the US$ and the way it is hovering just below the 200 week ma: stockcharts.com[e,a]whclyyay[pd20,2!a112,108!a108!b200!f][vc60][iut!La12,26,9!Lb9!Ll14][J4669125,Y]&pref=G A couple of charts I have been looking at include: Nasdaq McLellan oscillator: stockcharts.com[g,a]dhllnnay[pb20!b50][ilp14,3,3!lah12,26,9][J4304660,Y]&pref=G NDX: note the similarity of the current rally's pattern to that of the August rally. stockcharts.com[g,a]dbclyiay[dc][pb20!b50][vc60][iut!ue12,26,9!ub14!ud20!uo28!ll14!lh39,1][J6738366,Y]&pref=G Thirdly, I was looking at the vix this morning and it struck me that if this were a stock you would be thinking seriously of buying it. See how it seems to be putting in a low here at 38 which is higher than the August low of 30: stockcharts.com[g,a]dbclyyay[pd20,2!b20!b50!f][vc60][iut!Ue12,26,9!Ub14!Ud20!Ll14!Lp14,3,3!Lah12,26,9!Lo14!Lh39,1]&pref=G Lastly, the ECRI weekly leading index has been falling weekly, thereby not signalling any kind of economic rebound which might confirm the bullishness of a rising market. In the absence of a positive leading economic indicator, I can only conclude that the economy is going down further, and that in turn must be bearish for the market. PVZ PS: As for the CPC:Vix, I have given up on that one, lol. It stayed on an apparent buy signal even as the indices fell to new lows. I might just check in on it from time to time, but for now, I haven't a clue what it might be saying.

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (17313)	10/23/2002 12:53:50 PM
From: Nemer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23153

>>>>>what, if any, of your particular favorite indicators is telling you that this rally is real or running out of gas? don't qualify as a regular poster here ... even tho I've read perhaps half the posts this year ... but, I do know a few of the regulars from other places, and I do recall that you threatened expulsion from the thread for ranting and once I get started, I'm pretty much of a rambling ranter ...gggggg that out of the way .... I use forks... have been using forks for nearly close to fifty (50) years now .... I find them highly useful. back to lurking Nemer