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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (54203)	10/23/2002 2:13:24 PM
From: mistermj	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Oil and UN Votes From Forbes...... Hitting OPEC By Way of Baghdad Paul Klebnikov, 10.28.02 Iraq has huge oil reserves and the world's cheapest lifting costs. That's why a war against Saddam could change everything. Charting a military outcome in Iraq is dicey, and some say a bad turn of events could mean $100-a-barrel oil. But after any brief disruption, the oil-market effects of a neutralized or pro-Western successor to Saddam Hussein are unmistakably positive. Iraq sits on 120 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, second only to Saudi Arabia's 260 billion. "Since 1961, only in the years between 1973 and 1980 was there any exploration of Iraq's oil reserves," says Fadhil Chalabi, who was a ranking official at the Iraqi Ministry of Oil from 1968 to the mid-70s. "During that short period there were many discoveries of giant oilfields, which could now be developed very easily." Chalabi now directs the Centre for Global Energy Studies, a London think tank founded by former Saudi oil minister Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani. He has ominous news for the sheikh's countrymen: Iraq's real recoverable oil reserves could be double today's estimate. "Ultimately they could exceed those of Saudi Arabia," Chalabi says. Wow. Therein lies a partial, if hardly party-line, answer to the doubters who say that an attack on Saddam would plunge Iraq into economic chaos. After the chaos, it is hoped, would come some oilfield development that would leave both Iraqis and the world's energy buyers better off. Noteworthy about Iraq's oil industry is how much of it is going to waste--idle wells, rusting pipes and pumping stations that haven't been serviced in more than a decade. It's kind of like a Colorado ghost town, abandoned since the silver-mining operation closed down ... only the silver is all still in the ground, and in unbelievable quantities. A lot of Iraq's oil lies in huge virgin fields, discovered in the 1970s before Saddam turned the place into a military bastion, but not touched since. The Majnoun field close to the Iranian border, for instance, contains recoverable reserves of 11 billion barrels. That's equivalent to a third of the proven reserves of the entire U.S. And Majnoun is only one of several monster Iraqi oilfields still waiting for the first pump to get cranking. Not only is the oil in these Iraqi fields low in sulfur, it is also close to the surface. No need to inject water or gas or chemicals in order to upgrade recovery. In short, it's cheap to produce. "Iraq has the lowest lifting costs in the world," says Chalabi. "I estimate it at below $1 a barrel, compared with Saudi Arabia, which is around $2.50 a barrel." This is in a completely different league from, say, the Gulf of Mexico or the North Sea, where it can take $3 to $4 to lift a barrel to the surface. Another reason Iraqi oil production could take off quickly is that pipelines and terminals are already in place, though underutilized. Same with Iraq's many qualified engineers and technicians. (Saudi Arabia, in contrast, has to hire foreign engineers.) Moreover, through pipelines that terminate in Turkey, Syria and (potentially) Israel, Iraq has the ability to funnel most of its oil directly to the eastern Mediterranean, bypassing the Persian Gulf entirely. Who would be likely to get juicy deals in postwar Iraq? None of the big American or British oil companies are there. But if a U.S.-led force succeeds in ousting Saddam, it's a good bet that these companies will come in as soon as the fighting has died down.

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (54203)	10/23/2002 4:12:20 PM
From: Ilaine	Respond to of 281500

>>Armed Men Seize Hundreds in Moscow Theater October 23, 2002 03:19 PM ET Email this article Printer friendly version Purchase for Reprint By Maria Golovnina MOSCOW (Reuters) - Up to 30 armed men held hundreds of people inside a Moscow theater staging a musical late Wednesday, firing shots in the air, police and news agencies said. A Reuters reporter close to the theater said he had heard four to five gunshots near the building. It was not immediately clear who fired the shots or whether they came from inside the building, where some 700 people were being held. There were no initial reports of casualties. Interfax news agency, one of whose reporters was in the theater at the time, said the gunmen had let members of the audience make phone calls and allowed children to be released. Muslim members of the audience attending the production of "North- East" were also allowed to leave, Interfax said. Police said they had as yet received no demands from the gunmen. Reports say 20 to 30 gunmen had seized the theater, known as the former House of Culture in Melnikov Street in southeast Moscow. Neighboring buildings were being evacuated. The Kremlin said President Vladimir Putin had been informed of the incident, which happened on the eve of his official visit to Europe. A man close to tears told a Reuters correspondent at the scene: "My friend's wife is trapped inside. She said there are about 700 people trapped inside." That figure corresponded with the police estimate although the exact number remained unclear. Police anti-terrorist teams poured into the scene and sealed off the area. A city bus blocked off traffic while police cars closed off side streets to all traffic except ambulances. Around 50 police were on the scene, some marshaling a large crowd that gathered behind the police cordon.<< reuters.com