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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: kodiak_bull who wrote (17327)10/23/2002 3:14:55 PM
From: Nemer  Respond to of 23153
 
NBR ...

weekly chart

your "fork" is a fork, but tis NOT a working fork ..
mid tine to start in late fall of 2001 is fine
BUT neither the top or the lower tines of your "fork" have an origination point on your chart .....

to make a fork using a weekly ==== *(and this is appx as a weekly makes for hard to see exact points)

draw a line from
a) early May 2002 @ a wee bit less than 50
to
b) early Aug 2002 @ around 26

divide this line into equal segments === the midpoint will be appx 38 in middle of June 2002

this line is the "backbone" of the fork ... it is reference line only, NOT a line denoting levels of support/resistance

NOW

draw a line from the low of late Sep 2001 @ appx 18 THROUGH this above established midpoint in June 2002 and extend it out into the future ......
this is the middle tine of the fork
THEN

clone this line and make
T) top tine from appx the higher of the original point a) ==== 50 in May
L) lower tine from appx the lower of the original point b) ==== 26 in Aug

this is a current working fork for NBR
with a couple of minor breaks ....
but not large enough or long enough (time) to negate it continue being a functioning fork .......
late Sept AND early Oct 2002 showed each a minor break in the lower tine, BUT not strong enough to kill the fork ....

so, what we have, the way I see it
is a gently upwards sloping fork for NBR with ....
and this is important ----- gradual rising lower support --- ie ---- the bottom tine is rising, therefore the support is rising as well as the resistance, which is ALSO rising ...

One of the BEST things I like about the forks is they provide mutable levels, rather than static ones .....

see what you can do with those directions .....

n



To: kodiak_bull who wrote (17327)10/23/2002 6:59:58 PM
From: jim_p  Respond to of 23153
 
qw2002.quicken.com

Our friend NANO is upgraded and it is already up 85% in two weeks.

Jim



To: kodiak_bull who wrote (17327)10/23/2002 11:25:38 PM
From: Sweet Ol  Respond to of 23153
 
KB, I'll tell you a bit about what I have learned about Andrews Pitchforks. First, the proper way to draw them is to use three succesive inflection points. Usually you will want to use major reversals, such as the ones that are noted by the price labels.

I have drawn two forks on your NBR chart. First look at the green fork. It defines a major trend coming up.

stockcharts.com

Notice that the tines act like magnets, the price is drawn towards them, primarily the middle tine. Often it will spiral along the middle tine for quite some time. A major change occurs when it reaches or crosses one of the outside tines and the fork is no longer in play if it is seriously breached.

Note the later yellow fork that could have been defined when the reversal on August 1 occurred. It now defines a minor trend upward.

How do I know that the green fork is more important than the yellow one? Well, if the base of the fork corresponds to the C wave of a Reaction-type Elliott Wave, the fork usually defines the major trend for the following 5 Impulse Waves. It looks to me like that is the case with NBR and I expect it to be in a mostly horizontal trading range defined by the green forks.

Now, don't get me wrong, this is not the TA Holy Grail! But, I have been using it for some time now and find it remarkably useful and predictive when I use it properly. It does not always work, and it is important to know which reversal points are appropriate to forking.

This should make you life even more complicated<ggg>. But as LG said today, if TA was easy, everyone would be a rich day trader,ggg>.

Best to all,

JRH