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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: h8_2_b_l8 who wrote (12023)	10/23/2002 6:14:24 PM
From: doc	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

i like it.

To: h8_2_b_l8 who wrote (12023)	10/23/2002 6:34:20 PM
From: ajtj99	Respond to of 30712

h8, the two possibilities I was looking for this week was a .382 or .50 re-trace of the run from 1108-1317, or a double top around 1342-1350. It appears the latter is going to be the case. That's fine with me. There's a turn date on Nov. 7-8. That may be an end of a flat move off the 10th or a high. We're dealing basically with 2 falling resistance lines - the one off the March high through the May high and the one from the January high through the March high. The NASI and BP indices are all up into bullish territory, but most indicators are pretty stretched. The gap downs and early grinding seems to relieve the overbought conditions, allowing for end of day ramps. One sign that things may be slowing are T-Bills. The T-bills have been selling off recently, but they were up today on an up day in the market. Either that is signalling a re-trace coming, or it is a one-day blip. I think the former. Gaps get filled, and we have quite a few waiting beneath.

To: h8_2_b_l8 who wrote (12023)	10/23/2002 6:48:29 PM
From: Win-Lose-Draw	Respond to of 30712

A top on the 25th or 28th of 1347-1350 don't even have to wait that long, i think we got there in AH...

To: h8_2_b_l8 who wrote (12023)	10/23/2002 6:52:58 PM
From: Win-Lose-Draw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

your scenario could work out nicely with maxpain, because it's been creeping up. a couple more days up here in the 1320-1350 range could easily pull QQQ maxpain to 24 - currently at 23 - leaving just enough time to smack the bejeezus out of call holders AND pull back up to mess with enboldened put-ers as well.

To: h8_2_b_l8 who wrote (12023)	10/23/2002 6:59:52 PM
From: ajtj99	Respond to of 30712

FWIW, I saw that Merlin believes we're making a left shoulder right now, and that the head he's expecting is going to catch everyone off guard. That would play into a flat scenario going into the Nov. 7 turn. I don't know about his track record, but he seems to have been quite on the past 3-weeks.

To: h8_2_b_l8 who wrote (12023)	10/23/2002 7:00:41 PM
From: Jeff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

well da boyz can't float those daily sto's up there too much longer.....they have to put the paint away sooner or later and bring them down some......<gg> next longs i even think of will only be on daily anti-venom....and that should be the last gasp paint before the killing field.... your scenario sounds good.....now i don't have to post.....i'll go with yours.....<gg>

To: h8_2_b_l8 who wrote (12023)	10/24/2002 7:26:17 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

H8: Good post. I like the first chapter: "A top on the 25th or 28th around 1347-1350. This will puncture the 1347 top but give the impression of a DT causing a sell off to the 50% retrace (1350 - 1108) of 1229 (support from last sell-off as well)." I don't know if we get that far but it is a reasonable target. Anyway, for the rest, well, let's take it one chapter at a time. Off the August highs, it took us 21 trading days to put in lower lows and we had a lower high countertrend rally within that time frame. Also, your scenario calls for a higher high off this bear market rally from a higher low before new lows are made again. This has not been the sequence of events this year. New lows are made off of any major bear rallies and I would consider this a major bear market rally.