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To: mishedlo who wrote (199740)	10/23/2002 9:17:11 PM
From: Earlie	Respond to of 436258

Mis: The cited companies are but a drop in a huge bucket. Most companies provide credit in one form or another. Unfortunately, the rise in "bad loans", "credit delinquencies", "non-performing credit" etc., is rising like a tidal surge before a hurricane. This is why I think shorting the "credit impaired" stocks is a low risk game. You may have to wait, but the weight of that debt and the difficulty of servicing it will drag the stock down sooner or later. I am also beginning to feel the same way about the "pension contribution impaired" outfits as well. This issue is starting to move onto the front pages and ought to become a form of measles for stocks as J2P catches on to the impact this will have on earnings over the next year or two. Nice to be able to expand the targeting radar a bit. (g) A close associate of mine works out of Miami. He is my eyes and ears in that city in which I have more than a passing interest. Why does Miami interest me? Miami is a "wealth centre" (large quantities of dough end up there as a result of retired folk moving south,..... it is also an important port of entry for certain offshore agricultural products). "Wealth centres" tend to feel the effects of a slowing economy much later in a down cycle than does the average community. Until very recently, my man Rick has passed on observations that indicate very little visible impact resulting from the slowing economy, even as the lay-off cycle has burgeoned. But in the last few weeks, that has not only changed, it has changed very rapidly. Items: - Contacts within a large payroll firm down there have indicated a massive increase in lay-offs and reduced payrolls over the last two months. The adjectives used were "unimaginable" and "accelerating". - The Corvette and Cadillac dealerships have witnessed a frightening plunge in new car sales. Prices have responded as one might imagine. No waiting lists anymore and the sales guys will swarm you if you even look at the car while walking by. - Expensive dental work has fallen dramatically. Prices also plunging. -Residential real estate, which has been "hot" for many moons, has suddenly turn cold. Houses are not being bid up and they are not turning over nearly as quickly. Prices appear to have peaked and appear to be starting to descend. - Mall traffic is waaaaaaayyyyy down. He tells me you can go bowling in some of the big malls down there and that he is seeing the first "whitwashed display windows" (unheard of down there). But of course, the economy is still on track and there is no double dip on the horizon. (What a joke). Best, Earlie