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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom Pulley who wrote (83483)	10/23/2002 9:52:52 PM
From: bobby beara	Respond to of 99985

He's predicting a 1932 style decline in the averages, and the five wave decline from the august top to the recent lows is a wave one down and this rally is the mother of all bull traps - wave 2, rally into the neckline, then slide into the abyss wave 3. Hell who knows, only one person around holds the black mystery meatball and knows fur shure what the future holds -g- stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[df][pb21!b200][vc60]&pref=G here is an interesting sentiment study using the 200 dma and the 21 dma of the put/call ratios during the bear market, every time the 21 dma has strayed away on the upside from the 200 dma to the level it had at the recent lows and turned down a bottom was formed that lead to a a multi-week or multi-month rally, which brought the 21 day moving average back above the 200 dma before the rally topped out (one minor malfunction in this observation is that the 21 dma turned down prematurely one month before the bottom in july) which would indicate this rally has much farther to go if this relationship remains valid. The one thing that makes this bottom more interesting than any other bottom during the bear market is the double test and the bullish divergences in momentum and internals, along with the multi-month mutual fund outflows. Prechter has come out with his book "Conquer the Crash" and it's on the top of the hotlist on Amazon, there have been plenty of predictions lately of dow 4000, 5000, spx 300. The sentiment now is almost inverse of the top when people were talking about naz 10,000, contrary sentiment is a tricky thing though, because between true contrarian signals there are trends that move the markets and the crowd is right, until the turn, you have to consult the black mystery meatball for the exact date and time of that -g-