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Politics : Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ubetcha who wrote (16024)	10/24/2002 9:32:51 PM
From: sea_urchin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 82237

Terry >I for one do not think that Bush has an intention to go to War In fact, I said the same thing some months ago but, nevertheless, I do believe the US military build-up is tactically important in the region. What I have considered was his real, although unstated, motive is to see that the favorable (towards US) status quo remains in Saudi Arabia when King Fahd dies and the power passes to one of the princes, most likely Abdullah. IMO, that is where the threat of instability lies and that is also where the tacit threat of Saddam exists --- to promote insurrection and "regime change" in the major oil producing country of the region. Important to remember that the US interest in Saudi is/was also Al Qaeda's main concern and that is, in fact, why OBL's men were busy training in Afghanistan. It wasn't to make trouble in the US, itself, but in Saudi Arabia and, possibly also, Palestine. So, as I see it, the main reason for all the "terrorism" and military preparedness etc hasn't happened yet --- Fahd is still alive --- just. A second, indirect but nonetheless important, reason for all the war-talk is that it heightens international tension and therefore arms purchases --- especially from the US and the UK, probably the world's main suppliers. That's important now at a time of global economic downturn. I imagine, however, if Saddam either provokes a war by being silly or else doesn't defend himself properly, an attack on Iraq is a possibility but, as you say, it isn't likely at this time. An added advantage, of course, is that the bluster ensures that he does disarm himself and this, in fact, would be a big bonus.