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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LTK007 who wrote (8448)	10/25/2002 1:54:14 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 89467

Greenspan comments parallel those made in 1930, amazing "The transition to the higher permanent level of productivity associated with innovations is likely not yet completed... new productivity-enhancing capital investment will pick up soon." -ALAN GREENSPAN, 10/23/02 Speech Compare to ... "Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau." -IRVING FISHER, Mathematical Economist (1867-1947) Just days before the Great Crash in '29.

To: LTK007 who wrote (8448)	10/25/2002 4:01:29 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

what could the upcoming Ten-Sigma Event(s) be? I allowed my fertile imagination to run freely for a moment here are some potential events the real danger is not so much their likelihood, but what chaos that might follow it e.g. China attacks Taiwan under the cover of a diversionary screen while attention centers on an item within 1-12 or worse, an item within 1-12 occurs, setting off others within 1-12 !!! 1. serious attack of supertanker in Persian Gulf, with flames extending 1000 feet, blocking the Hormuz Straits where a large pct of world crude oil shipping passes 2. a dirty nuke by Sodomy or Al-Qaeda on a section of Saudi Oil fields, interrupting 25-30% of Saudi oil production, in retaliation of official Saudi Royal Family attempts on expulsion of BenLaden and his band of men from distant corners of their kingdom 3. Sodomy launches two dirty nukes on Israel cities, with Israel retaliating as it hits two large Iraqi oilfields, prompting Sodomy to hit neighboring Kuwaiti and Saudi oilfields in response, setting up a conflagration of MidEast oilfields 4. a large C4 bomb explosion in NYC Grand Central Station or at the NYSE itself, bringing to a near halt commerce on Manhattan, shutting down or crippling Wall Street 5. Iraqi terrorist cells retaliate after more concentrated US bombing efforts, with cells releasing smallpox on WashDC, killing 20,000 people 6. over a quiet weekend, critical bridges are seriously damaged (with perhaps one destroyed) in NYCity, SanFran, Chicago, interrupting commerce and commuters, stalling deliveries of food & supplies 7. terrorist cells poison the water supply in several major cities simultaneously, causing an utter panic, leading to health problems, disruptions, and dehydration deaths 8. Chechen rebels might kill 300 people to make a point, then attempt to assassinate Russia's Putin himself... timed carefully, Islamics assassinate the Pope and make an attempt on Britian's Blair 9. Bush complies with the "every 20 yrs pattern" and is assassinated on the streets of WashDC... Lincoln 1860, Garfield 1880, McKinley 1900, Harding 1920, FDR 1940, Kennedy 1960, Reagan 1980, Bush ??? 10. prosecution of JPMorgan for over $100B in falsified accounting in order to prevent disclosure of its bankruptcy leads to a chain of events with numerous associated bank failures, overwhelming the system's failsafes 11. liquidation of Japanese banks begins, but grows out of control, as 3-4 very large banks accelerate liquidating of their assets, worsened by private selling, which climaxes in over $70B in US TrezBond sales, sending US interest rates up almost 2% in two weeks 12. a Bank Panic occurs when press/media reports persist on the rising likelihood of US bank systemic failures, as focus on JPMorgan insolvency intensifies... this triggers widespread withdrawals of cash and CD's from member accounts, thus a RUN ON BANKS... fractional bank structures reveal their weakness much food for thought personally I believe at least two of these events will occur the list of potential Ten-Sigma Events is long and scarey in my own imaginative pursuit, I have 8 terrorist acts, and 3 bank panic acts, with one terrorizing financials any of the bank panic events would cause a derivative meltdown / jim