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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Lee who wrote (3741)	10/25/2002 8:46:56 AM
From: robert b furman	Respond to of 25522

HI steve, I understand your argument - but I disagree with it being appropriate now. I think that most tech is talking down Q4. I'm seeing consolidation occurring.Nortel is quitting its Fiber Optics Division.IBM sold theirs to JDSU.Agere is shuttering parts of their operation. Big fabs are rumored to be making consortium agreements with many firms that believed in the fab madel - but are now going fabless. The point you make is right on and it is happening right now. Most of these stocks are selling at new lows - often book value or cash value. The money going in now is not going to the pockets of the indiders,it IS the money of the insiders. We the little investors, don't have the bulk to move the market - we must jump on the coattails of those who do. The bitterness we've all experienced in this decline of wealth, should not be allowed to cloud our vision about the next great opportunity to reinvest. Forget the bubble - it was a top you either sold into or you missed it. This game isn't over - its just renewing itself. Many very fine companies are being reinvested into because they have compelling value and staying power for the next recovery. The bubble impacted many .bombs - there were many great tech companies that didn't ride that bubble.They have real products with real margins. They never were in the bubble, never wanted to be in the bubble.So forget the bubble - just like we should forget Pets.com. Real companies with real assets for sale at book value will make you real rich if you invest in them. It will require a longer term horizon as the accumulation is just beginning. As the bonds continue to churn - the real money of America will subtly flow into the great equities of America. The shorts are now competing with this flow and that's why you read more posts about how hard it is to cover. The float created by the shorts - (which becomes most popular at the bottoms) is being accumulated by well heeled smart money at the bottom due to compelling value. The next wave will be appreciation as supply and demand reaches equilibrium. JMHO Bob To be bemoaning the bubble when sound firms are selling near bookvalue is to be just a momentum trader and wrong again at the trend change time period.