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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alastair McIntosh who wrote (3742)	10/25/2002 9:36:57 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 25522

LSI Logic chief sees modest chip rebound stalling By Brian Fuller EE Times (10/25/02 06:11 p.m. EST) SAN FRANCISCO — The semiconductor industry has bottomed out and begun a modest recovery that may be headed toward an abrupt plateau, according to LSI Logic Corp. chairman and CEO Wilfred J. Corrigan. What's more, the sector's economic roiling is masking fundamental changes in regional positioning and could lead to some corporate consolidation. "We're on the low slopes of the recovery," Corrigan said in an interview with EE Times. "These rarely go in a straight line, straight up. You're seeing a modest recovery, a little bit of a plateauing. By the time we get to 2003, a visible recovery will be evident. "Everybody seems to look at each cycle as if it's like a movie that started 10 years ago and is reaching the final scenes. But it's like breathing in and breathing out. We've been through this many times before," he said. "Each time there was a downswing — 1970, '74, '80 or '85 — you'd see a degree of conglomeration. Every time that happened, someone would say, 'All companies exist today, and they'll conglomerate and it'll just be like the automobile industry.' That was always wrong." Japan shapes up Corrigan said the current consolidation is a difficult gauge by which to predict consolidations in the coming months, but on a regional level, the future is starting to take shape. Japan's consolidation, for one, has been a long time coming. "Finally they read about Adam Smith, and economics are driving these decisions," he said. "They really don't have many other choices. The sheer size of capital expenditures — the next-generation fab has nine different Japanese companies collaborating on this. This is a long way from building factories when you could borrow money at 1 percent. Those days are gone." Across the Sea of Japan, a new model is emerging. "There are at least three Chinas. You've got a China geography. Then you've got Taiwan, which is perceived as part of greater China. Then, you've got the Chinese diaspora — the Chinese spread around the world," Corrigan said. The parallels to the maturation of the South Korean industry are evident. "How did the Korean semiconductor industry magically appear? Initially, it appeared as an assembly geography for the big American companies, doing assembly and test for American suppliers. Then they started to attract back highly educated Koreans working in the U.S. semi industry. They became the nucleus for the next stage. "If you go to any of the big developmental parks in China, they're going to great extremes to offer high-end or expatriate-type housing and appropriate salaries to attract Chinese back to China," Corrigan said. "Ten years ago that wasn't a comfortable move, and now it is."