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Technology Stocks : Nortel Networks (NT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: hdl who wrote (13449)	10/28/2002 1:36:00 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 14638

To discover how can one buy at current prices, one have to discover which companies will be alive to sell in the next purchasing cycle. LU NT SI ERICY NEC ALA (NOK and MOT are cases apart) Those companies sell fixed and mobile telecoms infrastructure. As you can see during this downturn they are managed by the bond holders. They set the rules they have to play. They are just protecting their investment. This is important because some telecoms vendors are so much squeezed to perform that they have impaired their capacity of conducting business: NT got rid of the access segment and some analysts thing LU should get rid of the access segment as well. That because they can't support all those products today with 40.000 employees as they did when they had 100.000 employees. As you can see those companies will shrink. Shrink to survive to see the next purchase cycle. Is based on this type of view that one can assess the probability of survival of those vendors. The next purchase cycle won't be big enough to accommodate all those vendors. Perhaps three or maximum four. A few will not see the next purchase cycle. I am presently assembling my case, very very sketchy so far to be worth of posting here but once I come out with some meat around the skeleton I am putting together I will share with the Thread.