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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (8503)	10/26/2002 12:40:08 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 89467

nice additions to my TenSigma list as a probability professional, I find all these terms thrown around too loosely a ThreeSigma event occurs 13 times per 10,000 (1 in 740) if I had to guess, a TenSigma event occurs once per 5.4 quintillion so we are really toying with semantics here a different statistical approach would lead the analyst to observe the Kondratieff K-Cycle model, fit the various 6-10 past historical events into the 60-75 years, and predict the potential for winter storms, after anchoring the analysis in the past several K-Cycles dating back to the 17th century past full cycle winters: Panic of 1812, Civil War Reconstruction 1870, Great Depression 1930 !?!?! current cycle events: WW2 popular war, major bull stock market, unpopular VNam war with expense to TrezDebt, major bull stock market, world military domination in the 1990's, and recent stock market bust in such a stat model approach, I would say the financial events I cite rise to over 50% even odds likelihood !!! the 1930 Great Depression knocked out flat cold the GOLD STANDARD, which stood strong for 200 years, producing near zero inflation imagine what the K-Winter will do to the untethered DOLLAR STANDARD, which sees undisciplined govts the world over managing hyper-active printing presses I like to say, "Guttenberg would be proud" as for a Japanese earthquake, US spending strike (saver frenzy), Afghan runover, solid prospects I dont think Taiwan integration would even by a OneSigma event but you and I certainly disagree thanks for the new ideas / jim