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To: Earlie who wrote (200389)10/26/2002 10:42:28 AM
From: 10K a day  Respond to of 436258
 
yah. i like this thread cause it's twisted...thank you...



To: Earlie who wrote (200389)10/26/2002 2:25:38 PM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 436258
 
LEN
tinyurl.com
Much Much heavier volume on declines than ANY rally past 3 months.
Negative divergence on MACD.
Much lower top that last rally, stock price marginally higher.

TOL
tinyurl.com
Died on the 50 MA
Died right on a perfect trendline connecting all of the last 4 peaks
Appears to me to be a very weak chart

What is housing index symbol as well as more housing stocks?

WHR (not housing but certainly related)
tinyurl.com
Died right at the 50MA
MACD turning down
Not making much dent in long term liabilities
Other liabilities (whatever that is) on a pretty big uptrend.
biz.yahoo.com
Debt to equity ratio is 2:1
Adding this to my Grinch list if not already there.

Reaper, you got a thought on WHR?

M



To: Earlie who wrote (200389)10/26/2002 3:30:03 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 436258
 
Mish Grinch List – See Criteria Below
Candidate List (Unaudited for criteria accuracy but should be 90% accurate or better)

GM F GT - auto
COF KRB HI CCW - Consumer Credit
CIT AC - Commercial Credit
MTG – Mortgage Guaranty
FON VZ T SBC - Telecom
JPM C NCF BAC - Banks
FNM FRE - Mortgage
MBI - Reinsurance
INHL VRTX – Biotech (has to be more here)
AMZN S CDWC HDI CC ANN LIN CC TGT - Retail
TYC GE - Conglomerate
IBM BHE - tech
GP - (is this paper or housing related or both)
BA - aircraft
TOL LEN BZH - Housing (any weak stocks in this sector should be considered)
BA - Airlines
CUM - Energy (there should be more here)
WHR MYG – Consumer Appliances

MTG – added 10-26-2002
WHR – added 10-26-2002
MYG – added 10-26-2006

Criteria
Primary rules (need #1 + at least one of the others)
1)They have to have options(preferably leaps) and share price should be above $7 or so
2)They have to have huge debt where cash flow can not cover it
3)They have to utilize extreme leverage (these are far out chances but will provide enron like collapses if things get out of hand - FNM or JPM for example) Expectation is FNM will not go to zero but leverage will crush it on any mistake
4)They have mammoth pension underfunding with no reasonable way to get it paid back
5)They are very heavy into non-prime loans

Any combination of #1 plus either 2, 3, 4, or 5 will do it.
GM satisfies 1, 2, and 4. FNM satisfies 1 and 3. COF satisfies 1 and 5

I am looking for the weakest stocks in each sector, preferably non-mo-mo type stocks.
Reason for #1: I have an IRA where most of my funds are. I can buy PUTs but can not short.

M



To: Earlie who wrote (200389)10/26/2002 5:25:49 PM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 436258
 
tinyurl.com
Nice bounce to 50 MA
Man what a double top in April
Can we go back in time?
Losing $ every Q
$.5B in pension underfunding
Auto business (trucks)

biz.yahoo.com
Has a currency risk to Brazil. Why? (at any rate how good can that be?)

.5B in pension underfunding
$2B in debt

Financials look horrid
biz.yahoo.com

Headed for Grinch List
M



To: Earlie who wrote (200389)10/27/2002 3:39:18 PM
From: Joan Osland Graffius  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 436258
 
Earlie,

Do the Canadian companies have the pension problems that we have here in the States? I am thinking of looking at some of the oil and gas companies if they get to a discounted value.

Joan