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Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: paulj who wrote (9723)	10/26/2002 8:23:39 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 57110

There are lots of them. What I want are the worst looking charts that have bounced to significant resistance. I wasted my time and $ with LEN and on the next decline I am out (or perhaps I roll that position over to another weaker one). Currently have TOL and LEN puts. M

To: paulj who wrote (9723)	10/26/2002 8:27:36 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 57110

Paul, if you find some really weak ones with options let me know: These three are pretty bad: TOL MDC CMH Changes: Updated Housing stocks - Added DAL AET CI (oh to be in CI a couple days ago WOW) Thoughts on AET anyone Might be too late for CI now except on a big bounce Mish Grinch List – See Criteria Below Candidate List (Unaudited for criteria accuracy but should be 90% accurate or better) GM F GT - auto COF KRB HI CCW - Consumer Credit CIT AC - Commercial Credit MTG – Mortgage Guaranty FON VZ T SBC - Telecom JPM C NCF BAC - Banks FNM FRE - Mortgage MBI - Reinsurance INHL VRTX – Biotech (has to be more here) AMZN S CDWC HDI CC ANN LIN CC TGT - Retail TYC GE - Conglomerate IBM BHE - tech GP - (is this paper or housing related or both) BA - aircraft TOL MDC CMH - Housing (any weak stocks in this sector should be considered, but these 3 under perform most of the time) (LEN BZH HOV RYL are others to consider) DAL - Airlines CUM - Energy (there should be more here) WHR MYG – Consumer Appliances AET CI - Insurance MTG WHR MYG DAL AET CI – added 10-26-2002 Criteria Primary rules (need #1 + at least one of the others) 1)They have to have options(preferably leaps) and share price should be above $7 or so 2)They have to have huge debt where cash flow can not cover it 3)They have to utilize extreme leverage (these are far out chances but will provide enron like collapses if things get out of hand - FNM or JPM for example) Expectation is FNM will not go to zero but leverage will crush it on any mistake 4)They have mammoth pension underfunding with no reasonable way to get it paid back 5)They are very heavy into non-prime loans Any combination of #1 plus either 2, 3, 4, or 5 will do it. GM satisfies 1, 2, and 4. FNM satisfies 1 and 3. COF satisfies 1 and 5 I am looking for the weakest stocks in each sector, preferably non-mo-mo type stocks. Reason for #1: I have an IRA where most of my funds are. I can buy PUTs but can not short. M