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Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (9724)	10/26/2002 8:38:14 PM
From: Augustus Gloop	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57110

<<I hope I have not become LTSH at the bottom >> Ya know....I think we're all going to be surprised. As I see it the bounce we're in is still of the bear variety. The economy really isn't doing all that well and the consumer is still spending. That had better scare us all because when the consumer stops its going to get UGLY. Another issue (one of many) that I see are the number of shares out on companies. I believe we're going to see a massive number of reverse splits. This will making shorting as rewarding as going long during the splitsville 90's. It serves the brokerages as well because it allows massive amounts of money to be made on companies that are so close to zero that its almost over already. However, once we see bunches of reverse splits and total faith lost in the equity market we may have an interesting turn. Just as we exploded in the 90's which drove splits we may just tighten to such a degree after reverse splitting that it serves as the spark to ignite the next bull. Things will become more closely held and so condensed that a minor advance in earnings could result in that next big up move. Its kind of like the slinky we all played with as kids. Think of the 90's as the slinky being pulled as far apart as it could be pulled. Now think of this period (and probably the next 3-5 years) as the slinky being brought back into its tightly packed shape. Once back to original shape we should spring again...right? I know........sort of a stupid example but it helps explain my basic logic.