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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rob Fritz who wrote (6273)	10/26/2002 9:34:58 PM
From: Michael Sphar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Will it triple in 10 years? Who knows! Depends partially on inflation, partly on the economy, and partly on demographics. Here's some stats: This same house I bought at the top of the 89 housing boom was about $165K in the mid 80s when I was sort of shopping the same area. Back in 75 when I bought my first home on the other side of the valley, I'd estimate that this same house would have been selling for about $55K. Here's the dilemma. There are 30 million people in CA as of last census. Looking out 20 years, I read somewhere that the long term prognosticators were estimating an additional 20 million people living in this state. That's a lot of future demand for housing. 50 million by 2020? Reasonable or unreasonable? Look to Japan. They have well over 150 million living in a landmass maybe a little larger than CA. Much of the immigrants here are economic/political. CA has the economics, political stability, weather, and other general quality of life issues (aside from cheap housing) to continue to draw from this enormous external reservoir. So if 10 million more future Californians arrive, if the US economy holds together for another decade, even with a recession, and with continued monetary stimulus, I'd say a qualified yes to your question. Am I counting on it as a financial strategy? No. But I'd take the money if it were handed to me.<g> Can we get that capital gains limit raised in the interim?<g>

To: Rob Fritz who wrote (6273)	10/27/2002 12:45:50 AM
From: Michael Sphar	Respond to of 306849

Another thought on tripling. One has to be careful about perception. If you're planning on buying up in a better neighborhood locally, whether your house "triples" or not, if the next step moves proportionately, you're facing a higher real purchase price. Plus the government gets to wedge in between you and your wealth to make its sting as you make your move. Better to not move up in price at all, it seems. But I think its a safe assumption that dollar debasement will continue. Hence housing inflation will be biased upwards.