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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MulhollandDrive who wrote (6293)	10/27/2002 1:36:01 PM
From: Michael Sphar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

It was not exactly a "job offer". I was being told that my "position" was moving to Phoenix, and that I could go with it, if I so chose. Any fearfulness I felt was entirely focused upon the impact such a move would pose on my relationship with my only child whom I shared in split physical and legal custody with the ex. This was in the 80s. However in 1983/1984 when all that was happening, you are right, the stories of those who moved out, then decided to move back and the buy back in costs, were pretty rampant. In the last 2.5 years Silicon Valley has been fairly well whacked economically. Those that moved out 2.5 years ago probably can come back fairly easily right now. You might be happy to note that this morning my current wife pointed out a residential listing that started out at $850K across town near her girlfriend's house, has been stepped down twice, first to 825 and now to 799. There's a 6% imputed "correction" if one assumes that 850 was truly the fair market value of the place at one time. (Not something I'd have an opinion on at the moment, not knowing the specifics involved.) I agree there has definitely been a wall hit. I too think some correction is now occurring. The difference I have with the tone I've picked up on this thread is that others believe residential real estate must now correct dramatically and all previous history is of no consequence. This I don't agree with. That may be true in some selected parts of this country, but I don't believe it to be true here locally in my area. Here, housing goes up and down, flexing with the dynamics of the economy, but in the long run the bias has been and continues to be upwards. Further, even with a dramatic correction such that I personally experienced between 89 and 93, there is really no cause for alarm individually, if one can foresee that the demographic and economic forces at play will favor an eventual return to this upward bias and if one can also foresee maintaining one's own income stream. In the meantime, owning a home whether it is in Silicon Valley or some other place, is and should be a lot more than just an economic consideration. Especially the first and second home. After that, all other RE becomes investment property. Owning a home is first and foremost not about investing.