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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (6484)	10/27/2002 12:56:25 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95531

Hi RtS, Balance of power,Macd,Time Segmented Volume have all turned in very positive divergences of late. My bet is a rise from a double bottom.This rise will find resistance at the NAZ 200 day moving average - 1550 - 1500. Then when we get good Q4 earnings in most stocks excepting tech.Tech will come in with anticipated losses - but a growing backlog and the forward vision will be upbeat instead of "MUDDY". We'll have a pop(January Rally) that fizzles all the way to around prewarnings time in March 03.This should take the NAZ's January Rally from its heights down to the 200 day MA.If tech can show earnings (Q1)and a growing backlog for (Q2)we'll be right where we were in 01 - except this time we'll have legs(earnings lead by end user demand). If we get healthy thru Q3 with a good Q4 optimism we'll see 3-4 baggers from this months lows by November of 03. If by then - Terrorism has been diminished and the recovery is expanding -global digitization will be as embraced as it was in 99. The parallels between 1998 double bottom and recent price action are so close (almost within a week of four years ago) it is scary. All of this is taking place with a 40 year top in the bond market and 40 year low interest rates.These are very exciting times - that must be waded thru. If done correctly the globalization of trade will bring an era of growth and expansion that will no longer be controlled by :national sovereignty,religion or terrorism. We are on the verge of global expansion and communication. Communism has fallen in Russia and Europe.China has embraced trade and is now the bastion of growth.Closed economies will no longer be tolerated if they breed hatred or terrorism to subscribe their oppressed. These are all the bi-products of the internet and technology. The violent responses(terrorism) to technology by oppressive tyrants, will most assuredly accelerate their demize, as capitalism out performed and destroyed communism. To bet against these long term trends - because a depression in the late 20's ended in a similar fashion is to believe in folly versus view the true potential of our progress towards a global peace. A peace based on global commerce,respect of one's religious beliefs and freedoms that are inalienable rights. This recovery we enjoy today puts us on the track to a wonderful tomorrow. The trials of the last 24 months shall be forgotten - as our memory is really very short. Bob