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Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (9755)	10/27/2002 3:11:13 PM
From: X Y Zebra	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57110

Thanks... I tend to do the same. Looking at the VIX, on a daily... stockcharts.com[w,a]dacannay[dc][pd20,2!b50][iLl14!Lp14,3,3]&pref=G I see a conflicting signal between the ADX and the use of Fibonacci levels on one side, which say the VIX could continue lower (meaning higher stock prices) --the eSignal server is down for maintenance so no Fibonacci can be shown, (at least not for me) On the other side, the bollinger bands and stochastics, which may suggest a reversal (up for the VIX --and lower for stocks)... BUT if I take the weekly.... stockcharts.com[w,a]wacannay[de][pd20,2!b50][iLl14!Lh14,3]&pref=G Then the "conflict" disappears... Please feel free to find the holes in my argument... maybe I am reading something incorrectly. My point is... Given the strength of this "rally" against the poor fundamentals (i.e. unfunded liabilities, poor labor market, possible burst of a real estate bubble --something not everyone is in agreement-- ) I tend to be in the long term bear trend, yet... this rally may have lasting power, more than what most people think. Particularly if say... the Republicans get control of Congress... it may be seen as a "posibility" to get out of the current mess --REGARDLESS whether that is true or not, I need to account for the PERCEPTION of such idea. Reading the stuff about unfunded liabilities, sounds like the only way out is for the market to take up the slack to cover the deficits... So the question is... Who has more power... ? "The powers that be" or the market. In the long run, the market has proven itself to be right time and time again. But in the short term... Even if this is nothing more than a bear market rally, it could be a substantial one, larger than thus far... Just an attempt to get a clearer picture of what's to come in the immediate future.