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Strategies & Market Trends : Currents of Currency -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ahda who wrote (16)	11/15/2002 12:17:10 PM
From: Ahda	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 594

Happy Fifth Anniversary. I believe we are in a very different period of history. The growth in CA in the trucking industry is increasing as we bring in more products from elsewhere to our markets. Growth in government is not going to add very much to the economy other than buy the consumer goods that are being shipped in. I don't know if one can classify this as mature economy or an economy that is becoming labor overpriced. Trying to understand this market I have had to separate International Corporate America from America. This means you have to be very selective and do your DD in this stock market. Figures are showing that some of the companies that have invested in Asia are starting to receive a return from their investments. The FED on the other hand is concerned about internal growth or they would not be dropping rates. I don't think this will work as the more you drop the less room you have to drop so it ends up looking more like a proof positive statement that the economy is way too slow. Dollar investment creates profits and currency change can add to or take from profit structure. The FED cannot control the labor rate of the world. We all know that jobs create the ability to buy and consumption increases when jobs increase. Asia is young and poverty does have a roll in reducing labor costs. The US dollar might be one heavy armed piece of paper on the world front but it is not a very powerful one on its own front. This again is proven by the FED constant rate decreases. The FED will soon find it will be looking at a shortage of income as taxation proceeds go down while their debt continues to rise. Figures are beginning to show that US corporate investment in Asia is starting to be profitable. This will add to growth in the financial area in Asia as more legal rulings are going to have to be put into place to protect investments. The difficulty for US companies is going to be in conversion of currency to US balance sheets dollars There is an increased cost factor associated with the use of hedges to protect profits. Long range this to me adds to a very heavy possibility the US dollar will drop. the possibility becomes more acute when one thinks in terms of Asia's populous being a huge consumer base. An externally thriving market has very little to do with an internal government. The private community faces competition every day. Profit structure in a small operation usually means the owner who must operate with set number of employees is unable to reduce labor costs so the focus turns to how to reduce taxes while the FED tries to figure out how to collect enough. It appears hiring has subsided in the financial industry. That coincides with housing which is slowing in my area. Cost wise housing appears to be stabilizing. Part of the growth spurt in SO. CA. probably was due to movement of dollars received from No CA properties sales, these funds put into SO. CA. houses saw a significant savings. SO. CA. property has risen to the point where it can no longer be considered reasonable in cost. Lowering rates will increase refinance which will aid the economy but add to the potential of too large a debt load similar to what Japan experienced with over evaluation of property. The US trickle of wealth resembles a flood when you covert it to currency of elsewhere.. Taken from the CA Budget site. Personal income tax revenues were $88 million below the month’s forecast of $2.303 billion. Withholding was $86 million below the estimate of $2.098 billion and refunds were $70 million above the projected level of $195 million. Other receipts, which were $68 million above the forecast of $400 million, partially offset the shortfall. Year-to-date, this tax is $283 million under forecast. Sales and use tax receipts were $6 million above the month’s forecast of $1.792 billion. The final payment for third-quarter taxable sales was due at the end of October and a portion of this payment is received in early November. At the time this bulletin was prepared, early November receipts were not yet complete; a clearer picture of third-quarter sales will be available by mid-November. Year-to-date through October, the sales tax is $111 million above expectations. This is why i believe the Canadian government put in a GST when taxation is too high and corportations are not growing payroll tax collected decreases. It is my belief that CA has a very large group who do not pay taxes on income. The FED loses income but the state survives on on sales tax. Corporation tax revenues were $61 million below the month’s forecast of $242 million. Prepayments were $17 million above the estimate of $173 million and other payments exceeded the estimate of $136 million by $30 million. The combined gain, however, was offset by refunds, which were $108 million above the projected level of $67 million. Year-to-date, this tax is down $118 million from forecast. Revenues from the insurance, estate, alcoholic beverage, and tobacco taxes came in $8 million above the $105 million that was expected. The remaining revenues—pooled money interest income and “other” revenues—were $177 million lower than the month’s estimate of $105 million. This difference was due to the “other” category, with monthly revenues of -$84 million rather than the $88 million expected.