To: maceng2 who wrote (133 ) 10/28/2002 3:23:37 PM From: maceng2 Respond to of 1417 Treasuries climb on rate cut speculation (nice pic of Al) By Jenny Wiggins in New York, Aline van Duyn in London and Mariko Sanchanta in Tokyo Published: October 28 2002 18:09 | Last Updated: October 28 2002 18:09 news.ft.com Government bonds in the US and Europe rose on Monday amid speculation that the Federal Reserve may cut US interest rates by the end of the year. Expectations that the Fed will cut rates have grown following articles in the media suggesting a cut is likely if forthcoming data show the economy remains weak. The Fed typically does not like to take the market by surprise, leading the market to attach significance to the news stories. Despite ongoing strength in the housing market, much of the recent economic data have been poor, especially in the manufacturing sector. Further reports from the manufacturing sector later this week will be watched for clues as to whether the economy is still ailing. At midday the 10-year Treasury note was up 7/32 to 102 7/16 to yield 4.068 per cent while the two-year note was 3/32 higher at 100 15/32 to yield 1.883 per cent. The 30-year bond was unchanged at 1045/16 to yield 5.085 per cent. If the Fed does cut rates, it is widely expected that European central banks would follow. As a result, eurozone bond prices rose, even though data released on Monday were not supportive of rate cuts. Money supply data showed that eurozone M3 grew 7.4 per cent year-on-year in September, after growing 7.0 per cent in August. The German Ifo index weakened as expected but the expectations component of the data indicated an even gloomier outlook. The West German business climate index fell to 87.7 in October from 88.2 in September, and was up from 84.8 in October last year. Last week, the European Central Bank suggested that it was in no hurry to cut interest rates. Even so, yields fell on Monday as prices rose. The two-year German schatz yield was 6.6 basis points lower at 3.181 per cent. The 10-year German bund yield was down 3bp at 4.551 per cent. Gilts were also very much driven by the US rate speculation. The two-year gilt yield fell 5.9bp to 3.665 per cent and the 10-year gilt yield was 3.9bp lower at 4.632 per cent. Japanese government bond prices were higher on Monday, after candidates backed by the ruling coalition won a majority of seats in Sunday's elections, increasing the possibility that prime minister Junichiro Koizumi would maintain the government's debt issuance at Y30,000bn this year. Investors also bought JGBs on hopes that the Bank of Japan will further loosen monetary policy when it meets on Wednesday. But traders are also cautious ahead of the government's broad "anti-deflation" package, set to be released sometime this week. The benchmark 10-year JGB rose 0.268 to 100.535, sending the yield lower by 3bp to 1.04 per cent. The key 10-year JGB futures contract was flat at 141.60.