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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Softechie who wrote (8545)10/28/2002 6:28:00 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 89467
 
a cheaper dollar will do very little to repair the balance of our current account deficit due to complete dismantling of that very same apparatus which would benefit from a weaker dollar
how?
this is not as tricky a conclusion as it might seem
we export computer equipment, telecom equipmt, consumer goods, many professional services, faulty designs in banking, and arrogance

foreign economies are worse off than we are
their purchasing power has been depleted
sure, we will export some services to a greater extent
but their economies wont be in much of a position to demand such services
e.g. if world economy turns to recession, then US oilfield consulting services will cut back in the Middle East

the USA has systematically discharged mfg responsibility to Asian shores
we readily admit that higher gold prices will require 2-5 years in order to bring new production to market

why cant we see that a cheaper dollar will take 8-10 years to return a portion of the US Mfg Base back to US shores???
until we return some mfg to America, a cheaper dollar will mean little
this is the critical basis for the upcoming USdollar crisis panic

who will buy more US goods?
what goods will be bought by foreigners?
dont you see that even supposedly US-made products contain large amounts of foreign-made components?
so as the dollar declines, the prices of many US-made goods will rise !!!!!!!!!!!!
this almost totally offsets the lower dollar effect

take a computer networking product, for instance
check a close look at the inner components
at least 40-50% of components are Asian-made
as the dollar drops, all components will rise in price
almost nothing is totally mfr'ed with US parts
maybe razor blades, detergent, and toothpaste
not tech components, not clothing, not commodities of any kind outside grain
even lumber is mostly Canadian
our greatest added value industries are the most reliant upon Asian components, most of which will rise in price


we in the USA are in a MASSIVE MASSIVE CATCH-22
we have forfeited not only our mfg base, but our potential to benefit from a falling dollar
almost everything we import comes from abroad


take a look at the recent trade figures
despite an 8% drop in the USdollar, June thru August trade gap figures have risen continuously
this will become a critical headline in 2003
the declining dollar has little effect on trade gap
because the mechanism is gone for remedy
a product of the Global Economy
congratulations, brain dead US Economic and Corporate leaders

/ jim