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Politics : America Under Siege: The End of Innocence -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: hdl who wrote (19564)	10/28/2002 11:41:05 PM
From: calgal	Respond to of 27716

Poll results favor GOP's chances in House Senate fight is tighter; Bush approval rating high URL:http://www.sunspot.net/news/nationworld/bal-te.survey27oct27,0,5151186.story?coll=bal%2Dnationworld%2Dheadlines Associated Press Originally published October 27, 2002 WASHINGTON - Republicans hold a clear advantage in the battle for control of the House of Representatives in next week's elections, according to an Associated Press survey. The Senate hinges on close races from New Hampshire to Colorado, and the somber contest to replace the late Paul Wellstone of Minnesota. Despite the millions spent on polling and tens of millions on political advertising, "it's literally just about now that the 20 percent to 30 percent of the electorate ... are beginning to tune in for the first time," said Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster. "The people don't move and focus until the last five days," agreed House Democratic Leader Richard A. Gephardt, hoping economic issues will trigger a late surge favoring Democrats. Nationwide polls offer contradictory clues to an electorate that will cast ballots in a time of terrorism, economic slowdown and possible war with Iraq. Growing numbers of Americans say the nation is moving down the wrong track, 51 percent in a recent survey for National Public Radio. Yet President Bush's approval ratings are in the 60 percent range. He has also embarked on a late-campaign tour designed to seal a midterm GOP triumph. House Democrats need to gain seven seats to be assured of control. The Senate breakdown is 49 Republicans, 48 Democrats, one independent and one vacancy - created by Wellstone's death Friday. With fewer than 10 days remaining in the campaign, only two dozen House races appear to be seriously competitive, according to public and private polls. Democrats would need to win roughly two-thirds of them to gain control. The list of competitive Senate races is shorter, but long enough to allow a swing of three or four seats in the battle for control. Democratic Sens. Jean Carnahan in Missouri and Tim Johnson in South Dakota are in difficult campaigns. And Wellstone's death has raised legal and political questions that officials have only begun to sort out. The most vulnerable GOP-held seats are in Arkansas, where polls show Sen. Tim Hutchinson trailing; Colorado, where Sen. Wayne Allard is struggling; and New Hampshire, where Rep. John E. Sununu is in a close race. The GOP is also laboring to hold Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu below 50 percent in Louisiana. That would force a runoff - possibly with Senate control riding on the outcome. No single issue appears dominant. A recent Wall Street Journal-NBC poll found that 47 percent of those surveyed listed the economy as the most important issue; 39 percent selected terrorism and Iraq. Bush receives relatively good marks for his handling of the sluggish economy. Opposition to his Iraq policy appears strong among Democratic voters, but nationally, Bush wins majority support for his handling of the issue. In the House races where the battle for control will be settled, few Democrats have chosen to disagree with his threat of military action. Copyright © 2002, The Baltimore Sun