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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (6509)	10/28/2002 11:04:51 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95536

Don, I have the sneaking suspicion the AMAT buyers may know something about the coming 4Q report. G. [end]

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (6509)	10/28/2002 11:37:22 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95536

From Briefing.com: General Commentary - One signal that the recovery rally might be nearing its conclusion - at least for the short-term - is the market's increased tolerance for risk. Initial surge was led by the large-cap, industry leaders such as IBM (IBM), Microsoft (MSFT), Dell (DELL), Nokia (NOK), Intel (INTC) and Cisco (CSCO). Lately, leadership has come from names like Lucent (LU), Nortel Networks (NT), Openwave (OPWV), Redback Networks (RBAK), Harmonic (HLIT), AT&T Wireless (AWE), Qwest (Q) and Vitesse (VTSS). Recent emphasis on the sector dogs could have something to do with traders trying to get an early jump on more favorable seasonals/the January effect. More likely, it has to do with fact that traders ran up the first and second tier names about as high as possible and are now shifting into the third tier, highly speculative names for a quick trade. We've seen similar action in other recovery rallies over the past couple of years and typically it precedes another corrective phase. Could this time be different? Sure. For that to be true, however, fundamentals in the sector must be improving. Unfortunately, that's just not the case. About the best that can be said is that conditions aren't getting much worse and companies have made themselves leaner, more efficient. But there's been no noticeable acceleration in demand, and until that time the sector will have a difficult time sustaining a recovery. Robert Walberg Don, on AMAT... I bet they beat expected numbers but they have to guide lower in my opinion. Once a successful invasion of Iraq is behind us the market could truly start a new bull market. Not before in my opinion. RtS

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (6509)	10/29/2002 8:05:43 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95536

Good Morning Don, Excellent point on volume. IBD likes to look at volume on a weekly basis. Looking at volume on a weekly basis last week was well above the "50 week moving average" on all of the following stocks: AMAT KLAC - big time NVLS TER COHU - slightly ASYT - slightly LRCX - slightly This volume did not occur in the following: KLIC RTEC LTXX It appears this is a big cap phenomenon and that really does smack of institutional buying coming in -especially around Q end - window dressing. I suspect some weakness after the dressing is accomplished - but it also suggests that new lows will be stingy as further accumulation may well occur since this sector appears to be on the look out for institutional accumulation favorites. Certainly goes to show that price precedes sales and earnings.What else is new!! This sector's cycles have always required intuitive anticipation,luck, clarevoiyance,and any other tool you can defy the market's headfakes with. Bob