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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Road Walker who wrote (3796)	10/29/2002 12:56:33 PM
From: The Ox	Respond to of 25522

The same way we overshot on the upside, we will do the same on the downside. The "informed investors" will ride the trend with everyone else, up into the sky and down into the gutter. When something is working in your favor, it's very difficult to step away and wait for the reversal, even when all the information you have is telling you to do so. If it's not broken, don't try to fix it. This is precisely what we saw in the spring of 2000 and this is exactly what we will see some time in the future after "the bottom" is being looked at in hindsight. That's the beauty of hindsight, it makes everyone look like a genius. Shorts have had total control of the market for 2 and 1/2 years. They will assume the worst is coming, even when all the statistics say that things are not really that bad. They get confirmation of their point of view because the market will continue to fall, even after the fluff is taken out of the market and valuations are predicting even more trouble in the future. It's a combination of human nature and "positive feedback" from a declining market. Similarly, the media buys into the negativity and only focuses on what's going wrong or what could go wrong. If we look back at spring 2000, the media only saw what was going well and what wonderful things could happen in the future.